Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 011500
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

...VALID 15Z MON JUN 01 2015 - 12Z TUE JUN 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E AQW LCI 15 NNE BGR 25 SSW CWSS 40 WSW CWVU 85 SSE RKD EWB
20 S MTP 20 ESE BLM 10 NW GED 20 SSW NHK 20 WSW OFP 30 S SHD
25 S W99 MRB 12N 20 E AQW.


A WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD..ALONG WITH
ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER
MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY..WILL LEAD TO A WET PATTERN FROM NEW
ENGLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION.  THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM H5
TROF WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA..AS THE
SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TN VALLEY CLOSED LOW
INHIBITS ANY SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE FRONT.  EXPECT
THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING..FRONTAL
CONVERGNCE ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE..AND VERY HIGH
PWS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
TROF..TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED..WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION/RAINS..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  OVERALL..THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE AND DECENT AGREEMENT
QPF-WISE..SO FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY WITH JUST A BIT MORE WEIGHT
GIVEN TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE.  SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES
POSSIBLE..GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE/SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION AND/OR TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING.

TERRY
$$




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