Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 280818
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE CSQ 25 ENE CIN 10 SE CAV 20 NE DEH 15 NE LNR 10 WNW UES
10 SE BUU RFD DVN 30 NNW CDJ 20 SSE CSQ.


MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY

CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE WELL
DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS PERIOD INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF AXIS
IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY.
WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH
OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SEASON.
THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM CONEST AND
REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AREA DEPICTED FROM FAR
NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO
SOUTHERN WI.

ORAVEC
$$





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