Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 190101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...VALID 01Z FRI MAY 19 2017 - 12Z FRI MAY 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW ITR 40 N LHX 10 W PUB MNH 20 NNW DEN CYS 20 ESE BRX
20 NE TOR 10 WNW AIA 25 ENE SNY 35 SW OGA 35 WNW ITR.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW SJT 30 S ODO 55 S CDS HBR 30 E WWR 10 N DDC 30 ENE HLC
20 N JYR 20 SSE AIO 15 E IRK 35 ENE JEF 20 E BPK 20 WSW MWT
10 ESE JWY 10 NW SJT.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E CNK STJ 25 SE CDJ 10 E DMO 15 NW VBT 15 SE AQR 15 NNW 1F9
40 NW RPH FDR 10 WSW CHK 20 SSE AVK 15 SSW PTT 25 WSW GBD RSL
30 E CNK.


...CENTRAL / SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUED
TO UNFOLD AS OF 01Z. PLEASE REFER TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION. AT 01Z WPC MADE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO
ITS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH 12Z. THE WIDE SLIGHT
RISK ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN KANSAS WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO
CAPTURE THE CONCENTRATION OF LINEAR...TRAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SMALL MCS OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MORE MEANINGFUL DEEP LAYER ASCENT...HAD
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THAN MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICTED...AND
WILL BENEFIT FROM STRONG AND SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTHERN OK /
NORTHERN TX.

IN KANSAS CELL MERGERS AND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAD
GENERALLY PUSHED CONVECTION EASTWARD AFTER DUMPING LOCALLY HEAVY
SHORT-TERM AMOUNTS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE THE
NOSE OF THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET MAY MEET A COMBINED
COLD POOL...AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FOCUS AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STARTS TO MAKE PROGRESS BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE / JET
STREAK. THE NAM CONUS NEST...AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR POINT TO
A POTENTIALLY MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN EVENT STRADDLING THE OK/KS
BORDER FROM ABOUT MEDFORD AND WELLINGTON EASTWARD.


...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS / PARTS OF CO/NE/WY...

A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE RAINFALL COMPONENT TO
THE WRAPPED UP MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL FOCUS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN
COLORADO TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HI RES
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HOURLY RATES OF MAINLY 0.25 INCHES OR
LESS...BUT WITH EMBEDDED POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
ANY FLASH FLOOD / EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY
LONGER TERM ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE
6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED AT MORE THAN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

BURKE/ORAVEC
$$





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