Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 271854
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...VALID 18Z WED AUG 27 2014 - 00Z FRI AUG 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MHK 25 SSE CNK 35 S HDE 35 SW HDE 10 NNE MCK 30 N GLD
25 WNW ITR 30 NE LIC 25 SSW AKO 20 WSW AKO 35 E GXY 35 ENE GXY
25 W IBM 30 NW IBM 25 S TOR 15 S TOR TOR 15 ENE TOR 25 N BFF
20 N AIA 30 NE AIA 15 SW TIF 20 NNE BBW 15 N ODX 25 SE ONL
25 NW ORC MJQ 20 W AEL 25 SW FKA 20 WSW PDC MXO 20 N MUT
10 NNW MPZ 30 SSE OTM 30 WNW IRK 20 N CDJ 35 W CDJ 10 S STJ
20 NNE TOP 25 E MHK MHK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE LWD 30 ENE FNB 20 WSW AFK 10 NW LNK 15 NW FET 25 E SUX
20 ENE SLB 15 NE AMW 15 NE LWD.


LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS EXPANDED
BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST ALONG THE AXIS OF EXPECTED QPF THIS
PERIOD FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST CO---ACROSS NE--FAR
NORTHERN KS INTO IA AND NORTHERN MO.  A CONTINUED ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES--EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS
CLOSED LOW.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE INITIALLY
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS---AND
ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEIGHT FALLS---WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2-2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  HEAVY
TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE THIS
PERIOD---WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE MAX QPF AXIS A POINT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD
OVERALL AXIS OF THE GFS--HI RES ARW---NMM AND NSSL WRF WERE
FAVORED.  WHILE THE GFS DOES HAVE A SOUTHERN QPF AXIS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE---NORTHWEST MO---SOUTHWEST IA---IT
ALSO HAS A NORTHERN MAX FROM NORTH CENTRAL NE INTO EAST CENTRAL
SD.  THIS PORTION OF THE GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS AND WAS NOT GIVEN
MUCH WEIGHT WITH THE LATEST QPF OR EXCESSIVE OUTLOOKS.  WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES---A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS
ALSO INCLUDED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NE---FAR NORTHWEST MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IA.

ORAVEC

$$




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