Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160814
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 16 2017 - 12Z THU AUG 17 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE OCW 20 SSE CTZ 10 WSW HRJ 15 S AVC RIC 10 S FYJ CPK
15 S ECG 35 ESE OCW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW SDA 50 ENE HLC 25 N GLD 35 ESE LIC 25 SW LIC DEN
20 ENE BRX 55 SSW CUT IEN 30 NW VTN 9V9 15 WNW FSD 20 ENE PQN
20 SSW MKT FOD 15 NNW SDA.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE MDD 25 SW DYS 40 S ABI 20 E E29 40 NW DRT 50 SW 6R6
45 SE E38 20 ENE FST 30 SE MDD.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE JLN 40 SW TBN 20 SW UNO 10 SW HRO 20 S SLG 10 SW AQR
10 NNW ADM SNL 20 NNW TUL 20 SSE CFV 20 ENE JLN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW LBF 30 N BBW 20 WNW OFK 20 NW ORC 15 W EST 20 SSE SLB
10 W HNR 15 W MLE 10 SSW JYR 15 SSW HSI 25 S HDE 15 SE MCK
30 E IML 10 SW LBF.


DAY 1...

...ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY STATES...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS IN SEVERAL STREAMS WILL
BE EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY DAY1. INSTABILITY/THETAE ADVECTION
INCREASES WITH PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POOL UPWARDS
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG/AROUND A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL
DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE FOCUS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS/MAXIMA SPREAD WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSION
DOWN TROUGH THE SRN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...AS WELL IN ERNEST
BACK AROUND THE LOW WRAPPING FURTHER UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH MAX POTENTIAL PIVOT POINT CENTERED OVER MN. THERE REMAINS A
TYPICAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP DETAILS LEADING TO
AVERAGE (LOW) CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OVERALL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY TOTALS STRETCHING ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE ARW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE LIGHTER NBM PROBABLY MORE IN LINE WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND WPC CONTINUITY.

ACCORDINGLY...ISSUED SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS OVER
THE COMMA HEAD CENETRED OVER MN/NRN IA/WRN WI WITH CONSOLIDATED
ACTIVITY AND FROM E-CENTRAL OK/SE KS TO NW AR/SW-CENTRAL MO WHERE
THERE IS A THREAT FOR TRAILING/TRAINING HEAVY CONVECTION. THESE
BOTH ARE WITHIN A BROADER MARGINAL AREA.

...LOWER MS/CENTRAL COAST STATES...

PW VALUES REMAIN UPWARDS OF 2"+ FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD
AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF
DETAILS...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD FUEL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST MAY OFFER
THE MOST POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA AS PER INCREASED GULF
INFLOW/INSTABILITY SO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK AREA THERE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL
$$





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