Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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163
FOUS30 KWBC 300101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 6R9 25 SE 7F9 15 NNW F18 20 ENE ADM 15 E CFV 35 SW SZL
20 S VIH 35 S PAH 30 N MSL 30 SSW 1M4 25 ESE GTR 50 WSW GTR
30 SSE GLH 30 NE ESF 10 NNW CWF 10 ENE GLS 10 SSE LBX 15 S 3T5
10 W AUS 25 NNW T82 20 NNW 6R9.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE IAH 10 SSW DWH 10 WSW CLL 25 E TPL 10 N LNC 10 E GYI MLC
20 N FSM 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH 20 WSW MLU
20 W DRI 35 ENE IAH.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 25 SSW M89 30 N DTN
20 SW SHV 15 SSE GGG 10 E TYR 20 SE GVT 30 SE DUA 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR ASCENT AND
RICH LOW LEVEL INFLOW POINT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LARGE SCALE INTENSE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AT
01Z A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE
ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK DOWN TO ABOUT TYLER AND
LONGVIEW ALONG I-20...WITH SWATHS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING
ALREADY FALLEN AS OBSERVED BY GAUGES AND ESTIMATED BY RADAR. UP
NORTH INTO ARKANSAS...THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD
ENDED...BUT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS
CAUSED BY EARLIER INTENSE RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF
1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST IN ARKANSAS. MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEW RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE EXPANDED
PORTION OF THE HIGH RISK...AND IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 7 INCHES AT A GIVEN POINT OVER EAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE
AHEAD OF A MIGRATING UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT / ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THE WPC QPF FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF AND
WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH A SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN EVENT IN THE STYLE
OF THE HRRR COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BURKE
$$





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