Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 300712
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...VALID 06Z SAT AUG 30 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW PTN 10 WSW P92 30 WSW P92 15 ENE KVNP 10 NW KVNP 7R5
20 NNW KVBS 15 SW BPT 25 SSE JAS 15 NNW POE 10 ESE ESF
25 ENE LFT 10 NNW PTN.


...LOUISIANA/TEXAS COASTS...

A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WAS  QUITE MOIST...SOME 1.5 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
PERIOD ON ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  WHILE
RAINFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...HOW LONG THOSE RAINFALL
RATES PERSIST OVER ONE SPOT MAY OR MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO REACH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST ENOUGH BANDING IN
THE PCPN FIELDS AND ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW TO EXCEED THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR BEING THE WETTEST.  CONSEQUENTLY...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS SHOWN.


BANN

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