Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 292226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
525 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

...VALID 2225Z TUE NOV 29 2016 - 12Z WED NOV 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW HEZ 15 NNE OLV 35 SW CKV 15 SSE LEX 20 WSW HTS 40 N LNP
30 ESE 1A6 4A9 55 ESE NMM 40 E HBG ASD 25 E SRN 25 SSW KVBS
20 E BPT 40 WNW HEZ 35 NNW HEZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 S OLV 65 SSW CKV 20 NNW SME 25 NNE OQT 20 ENE CBM 15 WSW MEI
30 SW HDC 25 NE KCMB LCH 15 E HEZ 20 SSW GWO 15 WNW GWO 45 S OLV.


22Z UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED MARGINAL RISK AREA ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS HEAVIER
RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACRS THAT AREA.

LOWER MS VALLEY---MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY

22Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED MULTI-CELLED TSTMS CONTINUING TO EXPAND
AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING
ACRS PARTS OF CNTL LA INTO CNTL MS AS COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MLCAPES AND MSTR FLUX IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM S/WV DIGGING SEWD
ACRS THE SRN HI PLAINS HELPED FUEL THE DVLPMENT.  WHILE STORMS
HAVE INTIALLY BEEN MORE DISCRETE..THEY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO
ORGANIZED BANDED FEATURES AS MSTR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND WARM
FRONT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW.  PWS ARE FCST TO
INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE LA COAST NWD INTO NE
MS/SRN TX WITH 40 TO 50 KTS 85H SSWLY FLOW.  THIS ALONG WITH RT
ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STG 150KT UPR JET WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER TSTMS THAT DVLP OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR RUNS..WHILE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DVLP CONVECTION..SUGGEST
ONE ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAIN WILL LIFT NEWD ACRS
NRN MS INTO TN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DVLPG ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MSTR FLUX INTO THAT
REGION WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
INTO THE TN VALLEY.  THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN RECENT HRRR RUNS TO
SUPPORT A SECONARY AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DVLPG ACRS SRN LA AFTER
AROUND 02Z WITHIN AXIS OF HIER PWS AND ML CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.
DESPITE INITIALLY VERY DRY CONDS THERE...THE POTNL FOR SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION WITH HI RAIN RATES COULD PRODUCE SOME SHORT TERM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.   AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK AREA TO COVER AN AREA FROM PARTS OF SCNTL KY
SEWD THROUGH CNTL TN/NW AL/NE MS...INTO SRN LA.

SULLIVAN

$$





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