Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 031906
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 21Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE BVY 30 SSE ACY 9W7 25 S FLO 20 SSW LHW 20 NW CTY
110 SSW AAF 45 SSE KVOA 30 NE KVOA HRT 25 SW OZR 15 SW MLJ UZA
15 SSE EXX CJR 25 NE DDH MWN 15 ENE BML WVL IWI 10 NE BVY.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E VLD 10 NW 40J 10 SE AAF 45 SSW PAM 55 SW PAM 45 S DTS
20 S DTS 11J 40 WSW EZM 20 S EZM 15 SSE DQH 15 E VLD.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$




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