Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240105
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 00Z SAT OCT 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...MAINE...

THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF ME BY EARLY
FRIDAY. LATEST OBS DATA SHOW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STG ELY
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHILE SATL DATA SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PINCH OFF THE HIER PWS AND FORCE A SLOW WEAKENING IN
RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE MAIN LOW LEVEL THETAE/WAA BAND LIFTING
SLOWLY NWD ACRS MAINE OVERNIGHT.  MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST 6 HR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND .50 INCH OR LESS WITH HIGHER RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SOME ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF .75 INCH IN
SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE ENHANCED AREAS.  THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL BELOW MOST EXISTING FFG VALUES...BUT
ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF CONCERNS MAINLY BEFORE 12Z
ON SAT.  EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER SAT AS LOW
PRES BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

SULLIVAN
$$





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