Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 220653
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...VALID 06Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE BHB 80 SE RKD 95 SSE RKD 95 ENE PVC 20 E PVC 15 NE PYM
15 ESE MQE BOS BED 10 S AFN 10 WSW AFN EEN 15 SSE VSF 10 E VSF
10 E LEB 20 NE 1P1 15 ENE MWN 30 ENE BML 20 N WVL 15 SSE BGR
25 SE BHB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W HQM 35 NW HQM 25 SSE UIL 25 ESE UIL 20 S CLM 30 SSE CLM
20 NNW SHN 10 NW SHN 15 WSW SHN 20 E HQM 20 ESE HQM 25 W TDO
25 WNW KLS 20 E AST 20 ESE AST 30 W SPB 20 ENE S47 20 WNW MMV
30 W SLE 20 ENE ONP 20 ESE ONP 20 WNW EUG 15 WNW EUG 10 WNW EUG
20 ESE CVO 20 SE SLE 15 E SLE 30 ESE UAO 45 S CZK 45 NW RDM
35 WNW RDM 35 WSW RDM 50 SW RDM 60 SW RDM 55 ENE RBG 35 E RBG
20 E RBG 15 ENE RBG 10 WSW RBG 25 NW SXT 30 SW SXT 25 ENE CEC
20 SE CEC 20 SSW CEC 25 WSW CEC 35 WNW CEC 50 NW CEC 45 NW OTH
20 W HQM.


WA/OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE OREGON CASCADES

CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF ISSUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WA/OREGON COAST
RANGE INTO THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY THIS PERIOD.  LATEST BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF HIGH PW VALUES STRETCHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD  STRONG
ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE WA/OREGON
CASCADES TO THE WA/OREGON COAST RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE.  OVERALL---THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SCENARIO---LEADING TO A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  RUNOFF ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND OREGON COAST RANGES AND INLAND INTO THE
OREGON CASCADES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
WIDESPREAD 2-4" PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"+ POSSIBLE.

NORTHEAST MA---SOUTHERN NH INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE


THE THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE
SWINGING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS PERIOD.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WET
CONDITIONS FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC---INTO EASTERN NY AND
NEARLY ALL OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE STRONGEST---MOST PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW IS TARGETING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE--WHERE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  RUNOFF
ISSUES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS--ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
MAINE WHERE THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE THE SECOND DAY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

ORAVEC
$$





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