Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 251431
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1031 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...VALID 15Z THU MAY 25 2017 - 12Z FRI MAY 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE CRW 20 ENE 48I 25 SE EKN 20 SW SHD 25 NNW LYH 10 NNE MWK
15 NNE GEV 10 NW MKJ 6V3 10 E LNP 15 NW LNP 30 ESE JKL
40 ENE JKL 40 WNW I16 20 ESE HTS CRW 25 ESE CRW.


...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM
THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ACROSS EASTERN KY...SOUTHERN WV...AND SOUTHWEST
VA...OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS/ELONGATED
TROWAL.  THE BAND ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING EAST FROM
OHIO AND KY.  THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS ADDITIONAL TOTALS
ON AVERAGE OF 0.50-1.0 INCHES. WHILE THE LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE
FLUXES/INFLOW OVER THIS REGION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE
OF HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL AS RAINFALL RATES...A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET SOILS/LOW FFG VALUES.

PETERSEN
$$





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