Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 241324
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...VALID 15Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 12Z FRI JUL 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ESE MRH 25 SE NCA 10 WSW CTZ 15 SE RDU 15 W ASJ ECG
35 ESE MQI 40 SE HSE 45 ESE MRH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
CAG 20 ENE HDN 25 NE 20V 15 SE CCU 25 SSE MYP 25 SW CPW
15 S CEZ 4BL 30 SSE CNY 40 W GJT 40 WSW EEO CAG.


...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DESCEND THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST
MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES RISE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN TO THE REAR OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AHEAD OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
AXIS EXITING THE APPALACHIANS. WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW A
TICK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF NEAR 2 INCHES AND LITTLE OR NO OPPORTUNITY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION.
INTENSE RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NORTH CAROLINA...AND
EVEN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT WITH THIS OUTLOOK
WE INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MODEL QPF SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND NSSL
WRF SUGGEST GREATER CELL COVERAGE...MERGERS...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION IS ON THE HIGH SIDE...AS IS
TYPICAL...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES FAVOR PARTICULARLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 2.5 TO 3.0 INCH IN 1-3 HOURS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.


...COLORADO/UTAH...

PER EARLY MORNING RAOBS...AND SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSES...A
MOISTURE PLUME WAS BEING DRAWN UP AROUND THE IMMEDIATE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER...AND INTO EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO. NAM/RAP/HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE RESPECTABLE CAPE OF
500-750 J/KG BY MIDDAY...WHILE ASCENT AND INFLOW AT CLOUD BASE
BECOMES SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE DEEP NORTHWESTERN U.S. CYCLONE
BRUSHING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SUGGESTS
SOME ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE STORMS TODAY A BIT GREATER THAN
USUAL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING AND BRIEF TRAINING
EPISODES AS THE ENHANCED 700-600 MB SOUTHWESTERLIES SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOWS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.10 INCHES...OR 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMATOLOGY. THOUGH THIS REGION HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY WET
RECENTLY...BASED ON 14-DAY DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...THE TYPICALLY
FLASHY TERRAIN FEATURES MAY RECEIVE QUICK DOSES OF 0.75 INCHES OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND
CLUSTERING OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL QPFS...WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

BURKE
$$





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