Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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590
FOUS30 KWBC 260813
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...VALID 12Z THU MAY 26 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NW UTS 11R 30 WNW VCT 55 E COT 15 WNW UVA 30 W ECU 20 W E29
15 NNW SJT 40 W BWD 25 S BWD 15 SE ACT 40 NW UTS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S CDJ 10 WNW AIZ 25 E UNO 10 ENE ARG SGT 10 NE HOT 25 N MWT
FYV 20 NW GMJ CFV 10 E WLD 25 SSW ICT 20 N PTT 15 NNE GBD
15 ENE RSL 25 WNW CNK 15 WSW BIE 10 WSW AFK 15 SE ICL 40 SSW LWD
25 S CDJ.

ERN KS/SE NEB/WRN MO/NRN AR...
OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING MCS PUSHING EWD ACRS IA/MO IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE SWD ACRS SRN MO AND ERN KS THIS MRNG.  AS LOW PRES
ORGANIZES ACRS WRN KS THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING EWD FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SLY 85H FLOW OF 30 TO
40 KTS WILL HELP BRING INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTN/EVENING..LIKELY STARTING ACRS CNTL
KS BEFORE EXPANDING TOWARD ERN KS/WRN MO THUR EVEN/NIGHT.  HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE...BUT SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM
THE FARTHER SOUTH ARW...IN BREAKING OUT A SECONDARY STG CONVECTIVE
DVLPMENT LATE THUR AND THUR EVENING ACRS CNTL/ERN KS PROPAGATING
EWD INTO MO WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY DECENT UPR JET COUPLET. STG
FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGH PWS AND PSBL TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ACRS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOOD AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTL KS EWD INTO ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WRN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR PSBL UPGRADE
TO MDT RISK LATER.  ALSO EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK AREA SEWD INTO NRN
ARKANSAS AS ALL MODELS DVLP A S/WV THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
FROM SRN TX TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR TROF AXIS.  FORCING FROM
THIS IMPULSE OVER THE MSTR RICH AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD .50 TO 1+ PLUS RAINS...WITH SOME HI RES MODELS
SUGGESTING POTNL FOR EMBDD HEAVIER RAINS UP TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN
A FEW HRS.  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE MODERATELY LOW OVER NRN
ARKANSAS AND THUS SOME OF THE HEAVIER EXPECTED RAINS COULD APCH OR
EVEN EXCEED THE LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES.


CNTL/SRN TEXAS...
A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS
FOR PARTS CNTL/SRN TX. HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL HELP TRIGGER STORMS ALONG DRY LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY AS THEY DVLPG DOWNSTREAM INTO
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWS ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF CNTL/SRN TX.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS/LINES AS THEY ADVANCE E/SEWD ACRS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS HERE BUT THERE SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST AS WELL AS SEVERAL
GLOBAL RUNS TO SUGGEST EXPECTED RAINS FROM SOME OF THE STGR TSTMS
COULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SPOTS.

CO...
THE ONE AREA WHICH SHOWS SOME DECENT HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS BACK
ACRS CO WITH COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND COMMA HEAD DVLPMENT AS UPR
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD SRN CO.  THE 00Z NAM TRENDED
WWD WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD AN AREA OF 1 TO 1.5+ AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
THROUGH CNTL CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRC.  MODELS SHOW
SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER DVLPG BACK THROUGH
THE CNTL CO FOOTHILLS WITH WEAK MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT..SUGGESTING
SOME EMBDD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD OCCUR.  SOME HI RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ISOLD 3 INCH MAX AMOUNTS MAY DVLP..SO COULD SEE SOME
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES SHOULD THESE HIER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

SULLIVAN
$$





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