Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FOUS30 KWBC 271408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VALID 15Z MON JUL 27 2015 - 12Z TUE JUL 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE KS25 25 W ISN 40 ENE OLF 20 NE OLF 15 S OLF 25 SSW OLF
30 N JDN 35 NW JDN 40 ENE LWT 50 NW 3HT 35 ENE HLN 25 SSW GTF
35 NNW GTF 25 SE CXMN 10 SSW CPSV 20 WNW CXSC 40 W CWVC
30 SSE CWLE 30 NNW CYQR 10 ENE CWXB CYDN 30 WNW CZUG 20 E CWPG
25 WNW ROX 25 ENE TVF 15 SSW BJI 15 NE ADC 20 E GHW 15 NW OVL
10 SW MML 10 NNW PQN BKX 30 W BKX 20 E HON 25 WSW HON 40 SSW ABR
30 SE ABR 20 E ABR 25 NNE ABR 25 WSW K2D5 30 WNW K2D5 25 SSE JMS
10 NE JMS 20 S K5H4 25 ENE N60 20 SSW K08D 20 NNE KS25.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 W APF 30 SW SRQ 25 WSW SPG 10 W PIE TPA 10 SE MCF 25 NNW PGD
20 E PGD 15 E RSW 20 E APF 25 SSE APF 40 S APF 35 WSW APF
45 W APF.


15Z UPDATE...
BASED ON 12Z UA DATA AND RECENT SATL IMAGERY..NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREAS AND REASONING.


SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS CONTINUED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE ELONGATED VORT AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL H85 CENTER OFF
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST COAST OF FLORIDA---HOWEVER--- IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS PERIOD.  MOIST ONSHORE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WEAK CENTER WILL AGAIN FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS---ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5"+ POSSIBLE---CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES--ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.

NORTHEAST MT---NORTHERN TO EASTERN ND INTO WESTERN MN

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA IN A REGION OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FROM
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN
THIS COMMA HEAD--WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST---FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO
ENHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  A
WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE LINE POSSIBLE TO PUSH EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TO EASTERN ND AND INTO WESTERN
MN.  THIS CONVECTIVE LINE---HOWEVER--- MAY BECOME VERY PROGRESSIVE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY---A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR VERY
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  AT THE MOMENT---BEST CHANCES FOR RUNOFF
ISSUES WITH THIS CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE INCREASED CHANCES OF EASTWARD ACCELERATION.

ORAVEC/SULLIVAN
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.