Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 281857
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...VALID 18Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 30 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CVS 45 N ROW 30 WNW ROW 15 SSE SRR 20 SSW SRR 35 WSW SRR
55 ENE TCS 65 S ABQ 20 SSE ABQ 15 NNW 4MY 10 E SAF 30 SSW SKX
10 W SKX 25 NW SKX 10 ESE E33 25 WNW E33 10 ESE DRO 25 NW DRO
25 SSW TEX 10 W TEX TEX 25 NE TEX 30 SSW GUC 35 NNE CPW
15 NW ALS 15 ESE ALS 20 E ALS 25 NNW VTP 45 ESE MYP 30 ESE LXV
20 ESE CCU 25 WSW BJC 10 W BJC DEN 30 NW LIC 25 SSW LIC
20 NNW LHX 30 SE LHX 25 W SPD 25 NNE CAO 20 W DHT 35 E TCC
25 N CVN 10 NW CVS 20 WSW CVS.

THE VERY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD THRU MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..AS A VERY MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE..MORE THAN SEVERAL H5 S/WVS AND/OR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
IMPACT THE REGION..AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATIONS IN EASTERN
NM..EASTERN AZ..SOUTHWESTERN CO..SOUTHCENTRAL CA..SOUTHCENTRAL UT
AND AND NORTHEASTERN NV..ALL OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST MODEL QPFS
STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES PERTAINING TO ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR..SO ENDED UP TAKING A MANUAL BLENDED
APPROACH FOR THE MANUAL QPF.   ONE AREA THAT SEEMS PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO HEAVIER RAINS IS FROM EASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF
CO..WHERE INITIALLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET ON THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER PWS SUPPORTS THE ACTIVITY.
HERE..WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT AREA..ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS
IN AN HOUR OR SO ARE POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PORBLEMS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY BACK
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN..AIDED BY THE ONE OR MORE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW LEW 15 NNE RKD 25 NNE BHB 35 SE MLT 10 E MLT 45 NNW MLT
55 W PQI 15 E CWST 20 NW CWST CWPD 30 NW CWHQ 15 WSW CWBS CMBR
35 SE OGS 15 ENE FZY 20 ENE PEO 15 NE ELM 10 S BGM 30 NW MSV
30 N MSV 40 SW ALB 20 SSE ALB 20 W EEN LCI 10 SSW LEW.

BROAD SCALE AND DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THE STRONG AND NEARLY CLOSED
H5 SYSTEM NOW SWINGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NY STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK ON THE SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS INTO THE EARLY MONDAY EVENING
HOURS FROM SOUTHCENTRAL NY STATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY..WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN NY STATE.  ISOLATED 1-2 INCH
RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO POSSIBLE..SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS MOSTLY INTO THE MONDAY EVENING HOURS.

TERRY

$$





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