Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 191325
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...VALID 15Z FRI DEC 19 2014 - 12Z SAT DEC 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN TX AND SRN LA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC WAVE
DVLPG ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEX AS S/WV
ENERGY KICKS EWD FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS.   MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WARM FRONT FROM BARELY GETTING MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE IMMEDIATE UPR TX/SRN LA COAST AS S/WV GRADUALLY
FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY SAT MRNG.  SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FCST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF
ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS SOME
POTNL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN ...MAINLY THRU THE EARLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PD.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THIS WAS
GENLY ACCEPTED GIVEN WEAK INLAND INSTABILITY AND POSITION OF THE
UPR JET.  IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN GLOBAL RUNS ACRS THIS AREA...AND THE HIER
AMOUNTS GENLY AGREE WITH GFS REFORECAST AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.
AS A RESULT...GENLY LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF HI RES GUIDANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2+ AMOUNTS FROM THE UPR TX COAST EWD INTO SRN MS.
FFG VALUES ACRS THIS AREA ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THUS ANY RUNOFF
CONCERNS SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLD.

SULLIVAN/HURLEY
$$





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