Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 271417
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1016 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...VALID 15Z THU AUG 27 2015 - 12Z FRI AUG 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E ONL 25 SSW MHE 30 SW BKX 15 WNW MWM JYG 15 WNW MCW MIW
15 NW OXV 30 NW CDJ 30 S IXD 25 ESE UKL 20 WSW FOE 35 NNE MHK
10 E ONL.


SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER THINKING/REASONING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FAR SOUTHEAST SD---EASTERN NE---WESTERN TO CENTRAL IA---FAR
NORTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTHWEST MO

ACTIVE CONVECTION LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF THE TWO
SEPARATE AREAS OF HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING EASTWARD ON THE TOP SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CLOSED HIGH---PUSHING FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
INTO THE MID TO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LEAD AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
WEAKEN PRIOR TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC---WITH ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION RE-FIRING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN AN
AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW--INCREASING PW
VALUES FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN NE.  MODELS DO
DIFFER THEN WITH THE TRACK OF THIS CONVECTION--WITH THE NAM AND
GFS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF---HI RES
ARW/NMM--REFORECAST2 DATA---HI RES MEANS AND THE GEFS MEAN.  WPC
QPF WENT HEAVILY TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS---WITH THE
MAX QPF AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST SD--THROUGH FAR EASTERN NE---WESTERN
TO CENTRAL IA AND AS FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS FAR NORTHEAST KS AND
FAR NORTHWEST MO.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN THIS
AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN AREAS OF SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING CELLS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$




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