Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

660
FOUS30 KWBC 230059
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT JUL 23 2016 - 12Z SAT JUL 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE K9D7 15 ESE FFM 20 W VVV 40 S MBG 35 NE HEI 15 SE SDY
30 WNW ISN 10 S CYEN 20 NNE K9D7.


NOSE OF 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SRN NORTH DAKOTA / NRN SOUTH DAKOTA AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM BIS SHOWED 4120 J/KG SBCAPE WITH A PWAT OF 1.42 INCHES AND
ONLY SHALLOW LAYERS OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE CURRENT
ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF
TOWARD THE EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS BY CAPPING
INVERSIONS ON AREA SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...AS AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH 12Z...THE RESPONSE AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FOR 850 MB
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND A SECOND...MORE
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...ROUND OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ORGANIZING IN ERN MONTANA. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CELL MERGERS LEADING TO
EXCESSIVE TOTALS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...ERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...

GREATER UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE SETUP. WEAKER PERTURBATIONS SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY...MOVING INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 00Z RAOBS
FROM OAX AND DVN IN THE 4000-5000+ J/KG RANGE.

OTTO
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.