Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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094
FOUS30 KWBC 170100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 17 2015 - 12Z SUN MAY 17 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E ACT 10 S T82 20 SSE ECU 15 NW DRT 40 SE 6R6 15 S 6R6
10 NW 6R6 55 E FST 40 NNW SJT 60 SSW F05 30 WNW CHK 20 SSE JWG
10 NNE WDG 20 WSW WLD 20 ESE AAO 35 SW EMP EMP 20 NE EMP
25 N UKL 25 SSE FOE 25 SSW IXD 50 SSE IXD 30 NNE JLN 25 NNE ROG
25 SE FYV 20 NW DEQ 15 NW 3T1 15 E ACT.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNW MOB 50 NNE MOB 40 W GZH 35 WSW GZH 35 NW NSE 30 ENE BFM
BFM BIX HSA 10 SSW ASD 15 N NEW 15 WNW ASD 15 NW ASD 30 NNE ASD
20 SE HBG 40 NNW MOB.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW---PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING---AND CONTINUING
NORTHEASTWARD AND CLOSING OFF A NEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  AN
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ALREADY ONGOING  ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S.---STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION---SOUTHWARD THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS---IN A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY LARGE REGION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION---AND
ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF OK INTO TX---WHERE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE LIFT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS CONTINUES OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE KS/OK/MO/AR
BORDER---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL TX WHERE
CONVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC TIME FRAME SUNDAY
MAY 17TH.  TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION---IN WHAT COULD BE A VERY LARGE FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE---POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING--RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR OR
TWO---AND SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVERNIGHT GREATER THAN 3
INCHES---COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SOME ISOLATED HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS PARTS
OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MS AND AL..FOCUSED AND POSSIBLY MAINTAINED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL DEFINED THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT H850 AS PER THE 00Z RAOBS.  AS
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY HOPEFULLY WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING---THE CONVECTION SHOULD HOPEFULLY
BECOME LESS FOCUSED/ORGANIZED.  SOME VERY ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL
THE NEXT FEW HOURS..WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS
IN AN HOUR OR SO..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.


TERRY
$$





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