Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 231410
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

...VALID 15Z TUE DEC 23 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW PAM 25 SSE JKA 30 S GPT MSY 25 ESE BTR 25 W PIB 20 W TCL
20 SSE 3A1 RMG 30 NNW GVL 10 W AVL 20 NNW GSP 10 N 27A 20 SW 3J7
10 E WRB 10 NE EZM 15 NNW AMG AYS 40 ESE VLD 25 N CTY 60 SSW 40J
35 SSW PAM.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE DHN 25 SW ABY 15 NNW MGR 15 ENE MGR 10 W VAD VLD
20 SSW VLD 15 NNW 40J 30 W 40J 20 E AAF 10 WNW AAF 10 WSW PAM
15 SE DTS 10 WSW DTS 10 WSW HRT PNS NSE 15 NNE NSE 20 NNE CEW
15 SE DHN.


MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.  HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT TO
MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM PARTS OF SERN LA/SRN MS EWD ACRS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWD INTO THE SRN APLCNS.  THE EVOLUTION OF
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR TROF OVER THE CNTL U.S. WILL LEAD TO THE
DVLPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACRS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS PD.   STG JET ENERGY DIVING TOWARD
THE BASE OF THE HI AMPLITUDE UPR TROF ACRS TX WILL SUPPORT A
SECONDARY LOW DVLPMENT ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WITH
THE LOW TRACKING NNEWD TOWARD WRN KY REGION BY WED MRNG.   THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW AS WELL AS
DVLPMENT OF ASSOCD MID LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF.  THE
GFS WHILE TRENDING SLOWER...CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT FASTER
OUTLIER SOLN.  AS THE LOW GRADUALLY ORGANIZES THIS AFTN ACRS THE
WRN GULF COAST REGION...EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE S/SW WHICH WILL ALLOW VERY DEEP MSTR WITH
PWS AOA 1.75 INCHES TO STREAM NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN
GULF COAST REGION.  SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MSTR SOURCE HAS
CONNECTIONS DEEP INTO GULF AS WELL AS TAPPING HI LEVEL MSTR FROM
THE SUBTROPICS WEST OF MEX.  THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL-LIKE MSTR
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING RT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL DVLP NWD ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PD.  THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL
LIKELY DVLP INTO A MORE ORGANIZED SQLN TYPE FEATURE TUE NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EWD ACRS THE CNTL GULF COAST AND TOWARD
THE FL PANHANDLE BY WED MRNG. AT THIS TIME FEEL THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL TEND TO OCCUR IN VCNTY OF THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ONE/TWO PUNCH
OF MRNG/AFTN HEAVY RAIN BANDS AS OFFSHORE CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG
AXIS OF HIER PWS LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACRS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY STG
COLD FRONT BAND TUES NIGHT.  WITHIN THIS AREA AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS AS SUPPORTED BY GENL CONSENSUS OF 00Z HI RES
GUIDANCE.

TERRY

$$





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