Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 250101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...VALID 01Z MON JUL 25 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...ERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS...

ONGOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN COLORADO IS
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1000-3000 J/KG
CAPE...2831 J/KG AT 00Z DDC...AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/BEHIND A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING KANSAS FROM NORTH AND SOUTH.
WHILE A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE MOTION TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS OVERNIGHT...CELL MERGERS WITHIN THE
ONGOING CLUSTER AND WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAX EXCEED LOCALLY
LOWER FFG VALUES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN KANSAS...OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
IN 1 HOUR OR 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

...MISSOURI/ILLINOIS...

DEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLY....JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...RANGES FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES VIA 00Z RAOB
DATA. SLOW STORM MOTIONS IN MISSOURI...5-15 KTS...AND WEAK BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES
GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRRS CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST 3-5 INCHES
ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL MISSOURI INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS THROUGH 12Z.

OTTO
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