Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 140646
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...VALID 06Z SUN SEP 14 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 15 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA


HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL SC.  ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO
COASTAL SC.  FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION
VECTORS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS REINTRODUCE FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO
EASTERN SC---WITH A MODERATE RISK AREA CENTERED OVER COASTAL SC
WHERE ONGOING SLOW MOVING CELLS AND ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING CELLS
TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT MAY OCCUR.  IN AREAS OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS---ISOLATED SHORT TERM AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION # 0375 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON ONGOING ACTIVITY.

ORAVEC

$$





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