Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 140045
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...VALID 00Z MON APR 14 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 15 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE APN 20 NE OSC 25 NE GRR 10 WSW BIV ORD VYS 30 SSE IRK
25 NW SZL 25 WSW EMP 25 SE JYR ADU 15 WSW PDC OVS 15 WNW MTW
15 NW TVC 25 NNE GLR 10 ENE PZQ 30 ESE APN.


03Z UPDATE...


PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI..

TRIMMED WRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE HEAVIER RAIN THREAT
HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.  OTHERWISE THREAT OF HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINS REMAINS OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SERN
IA---NORTHERN IL---SOUTHEAST WI INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
L.P. OF MI---ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THIS AREA.  MODELS CONTINUING TO ALL FORECAST HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AS MAIN S/WV ENERGY LIFTS NEWD
FROM THE CNTL PLAINS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO LOWER MI
BY MON MRNG. MDTLY STG WAA PATRN AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5"+ WITH ISOLD
HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL WHERE REPEAT CONVECTION OCCURS,  THESE
ADDITIONAL RAINS ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES OVERNIGHT THRU MON
MRNG.

LOWER MS VALLEY...

SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION..ONE MORE ALIGNED WITH LOW
LEVEL JET AND DEEPER PW AXIS...AND THE OTHER AHEAD OF SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACRS THE ARKLAMS/WRN TN AREA
OVERNIGHT.  LEAD ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO SLOW AS INITIAL S/WV ENERGY
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME HEAVIER E/W BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL DVLP OVER SRN AR INTO MS/NRN LA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MON MRNG.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUSIVE TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PWS FCST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT..WEAK TO MDT INSTABILITY..AND DIFFLUENT JET PATRN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME VEERING OF 85H FLOW
OVERNIGHT..THIS COULD ENCOURAGE SOME SHORT TERM TRAINING OF CELLS.
 FFG VALUES ARE GENLY NEAR 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS WHICH COULD BE
APCHED WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

SULLIVAN
$$




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