Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 031356
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE MAR 03 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW 2G4 EKN 20 SSE 48I 20 SSW 48I 15 W CRW 20 WSW JKL
10 N SME 25 NNW EKQ 20 NE CKV 40 SE PAH 10 E PAH 30 ENE M30
20 NE OWB 30 NNE LOU 10 S LUK 35 ESE ILN 15 NNW UNI 25 WNW PKB
15 NE PKB 30 S HLG 20 ESE AFJ 15 WSW 2G4.


...SOUTHERN OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA/WV...

AFTER LOOKING SOME OF THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS..SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING.  A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
POSITIVE TILTED MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS WITH WINTRY MIX LIKELY FARTHER NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE INITIAL SURFACE
LOW ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING
S/WV EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.   THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OH
VALLEY AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT INTO CANADA..WHICH WILL ALLOW
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES TO
FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH PWS ALONG WITH
H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT..LIKELY LEADING TO SOME
HEAVY RAINS FROM PARTS OF AR NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY.  EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+
INCHES..MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT..WHICH COULD
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED THE LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE FROM
KY EASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/SOUTHWESTERN PA.

TERRY


$$




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