Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 041454
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT JUL 04 2015 - 12Z SUN JUL 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW VPC 20 WNW AUO 10 SW MEI 40 NNE ESF 10 NNE 3T1
30 ESE DUA 10 SE DEQ 25 NE LLQ 35 W TUP 30 NNW MSL 10 SW MQY
40 NW CSV 30 N OQT 15 SSW 1A6 35 SSE 1A6 20 ESE TYS 10 NNW VPC.


15Z UPDATE...

...TN VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER REGION OF EASTERN TX/OK...

BASED THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK AREA FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AR..NORTHERN LA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OK AND
NORTHEASTERN TX.  LOW LEVEL INFLOW...TAPPING DEEPER
MOISTURE..GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST..ALONG WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT BECOME MORE DISJOINTED AND
CONVECTION BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED.  REFER TO MPD #300 AND ANY
FORTHCOMING MPDS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL AZ...

WITH AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTER DRIFTING SOUTH FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
CA..ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN AZ..IS
EXPECTED TO ACCENTUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RAISE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING.

...NORTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL-NORTHERN NV...

LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING FROM
NORTHERN AZ ALONG THE SIERRA INTO CENTRAL NV BY THIS
EVENING..REACHING NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT. THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH
THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO ACCENTUATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SIERRA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

H5 S/WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. H5 TROF..MAINTAINING TROFINESS THRU THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD.  THE S/WV NOW VICINITY OF KS IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE
MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM..ALONG WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY..WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE
LATEST MODEL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
IDEA..SO WPC QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF THEM..BUT WITH A BIT
MORE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE..AS PER THE
ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF.  MOSTLY EXPECT 0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES WHERE TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OCCURS.
OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PERIOD WHERE FF
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW..FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN
AL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TN.

PEREIRA/TERRY
$$





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