Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 250157
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
857 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE NOV 25 2014 - 00Z WED NOV 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE TDO 15 SE RNT 20 SE AWO 35 ENE BVS 40 SSE CWZA 60 E AWO
30 WNW EAT 25 SSE SMP 35 W YKM 40 NNW DLS 15 NNE CZK 15 SSW CZK
20 ENE SPB 30 ENE TDO.


...WA CASCADES...

A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN ISSUES FOR THE WA
CASCADES.  STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW PATTERN TO THE SOUTH OF STG E/W
UPR JET WILL PROVIDE ANOMALOUSLY STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE PAC NW MON
NIGHT WITH MSTR STREAMING ACRS PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/NRN ROCKIES INTO TUES.  INITIAL WEAK S/WV MOVING INTO WRN
CANADA MON AFTN WILL PUSH E/W FRONTAL BNDRY SWD INTO WA STATE
WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL MON NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF RATHER
HIGH PWS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES POOLED ALONG THE BNDRY AND CONFLUENT
85H WLY FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PROVIDE STG MSTR FLUX VALUES OF
2 TO 3+ STD ABOVE NORMAL INTO WA/NRN OREGON REGION.  SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BNDRY WILL AIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY PCPN
ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ESPECIALLY WRN
WA WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE QUITE STG. AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WA CASCADES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL WHICH COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES.
FARTHER EAST...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THOUGH SOME OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAINS
WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO SNOW COVER..SO ANY RUNOFF ISSUES
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

SULLIVAN

$$




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