Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

000
FOUS30 KWBC 211408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1008 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...VALID 15Z THU JUL 21 2016 - 12Z FRI JUL 22 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



15Z UPDATE...

...MIDWEST/GT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ON EARLY MORNING MCS
COMPLEX ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY THIS MRNG..WITH MANY OF THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY..WHILE OTHERS INCLUDING
THE NSSL WRF..ARW...NMM..NAM CONEST SHOWING EITHER POOR TIMING OR
LACKING INTENSITY ALL TOGETHER.  THE MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING BUT IN THE CASE OF THE HRRR
EXPERIMENTAL AND PARALLEL RUNS...SHOW A REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACRS WI/LOWER MI DURING THE AFTN..ALONG NRN EDGE OF STG
MID LEVEL CAP.  EARLIER THOUGHTS OF REDEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTHWEST
AS MO ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN VERY WARM 7H TEMPS..BUT
INHIBITION IS LESS INTENSE FARTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF NRN
IL/IN..SO COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE ACTIVITY IN EAST-WEST TRAINING
BANDS GETTING THAT FAR SOUTH...INCLUDING NRN OH THIS
AFTN/OVERNIGHT BASED ON MRNG SOUNDING ACRS THOSE AREAS.  THE LARGE
SPREAD IN AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE AND POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY PRECLUDES ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.


...SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...

WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE ANCHORING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S AND TROUGHING INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND TWO SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR
LATE JULY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS MOVING INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH
THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM AZ/NM UP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN,
SUCH AS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WESTERN CO ROCKIES, WHERE LOCAL
OROGRAPHICS WILL LEAD TO MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS.  NORMALLY,
ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS MODULATED BY DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
CONVECTION COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT.  A SEE TEXT FOR THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO DEAL WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ISSUES IN WESTERN CO AND THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ.

SULLIVAN/ROTH
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.