Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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499
FOUS30 KWBC 230002
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...VALID 01Z MON MAY 23 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNW PIR 45 E BIS 35 SW K46D 15 S CWPO 10 NNW CXDW
30 NNE CWGN 10 SW HCO 10 S CKN 10 ENE JKJ 20 WNW FFM 15 N ETH
35 W BKX 40 N ONL 45 WNW VTN 30 SSE PHP 40 NNW PIR.


23/0100 UTC

...TX PANHANDLE REGION...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO ERUPT NEAR AND JUST EAST OF DRY LINE ACRS W TX
AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SOME OF THE STGR SUPERCELLS HAVE SHOWN
A TENDENCY FOR SLOW MOVEMENT WITH RAPID VERTICAL DVLPMENT FEEDING
OFF OF AFTN MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACRS THE AREA.  GPS
AND BLENDED TPW VALUES INDCIATE PWS HAVE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.4 INCHES ACRS THE AREA WHICH GIVEN SOME SLOWER CELL MOVEMENT
AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT CELL GROWTH COULD LEAD
TO SOME HEAVY SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES.  RECENT TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST A MODEST PROBABILITY OF 2 INCH
OR GREATER RAINFALL RATES WITH ACTIVITY GENLY BUILDING EWD
OVERNIGHT TOWARD CNTL TX.  SEE MPD #226 VALID UNTIL 0330Z FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.  SULLIVAN


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE SLIGHT RISK OVER THE UPPER COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX WAS REMOVED
GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS---THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF EASTERN ND TO COVER SOME OF THE SPREAD FROM
THE LATEST 1200 UTC HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.  THE ARW---NMMB
AND GEM ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST HERE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS.  GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH THESE MODELS---THE
TREND WAS FOLLOWED FOR WPCS UPDATED QPF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD.

ORAVEC

...NORTHERN PLAINS / MAINLY THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...

EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AN
INCREASINGLY RICH RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE A LOCAL MAXIMUM OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN A REGION OF
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. WIDESPREAD INITIATION ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE FLUX AT THAT LATITUDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED WHERE WPC
AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS 0.75 TO 2.00 INCHES...WITH HI-RES MODELS
INDICATING LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 3 INCHES. THIS INCLUDES MAINLY THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...TO THE NORTH OF THE SAND HILLS. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...AND IN SOME CASES DRY...BUT
THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE EARLY PHASE OF UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH MANY CELL MERGERS AND ACCELERATION OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW
DURING THE EVENING. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUICK TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING.



BURKE
$$





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