Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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069
FOUS30 KWBC 271415
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...VALID 15Z TUE SEP 27 2016 - 12Z WED SEP 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
110 E MMCV 45 SW MMMA 30 ESE BKS 20 E 2R8 15 SSE KBBF.


1500 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
LOWER TX COAST TODAY. DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (AT LEAST 500-1000
J/KG) AND DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 2-2.25 INCHES) WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOWER TX
COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (AROUND 10 KTS) AS
WELL AS BULK SHEAR (<20 KTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM) WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED (I.E. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING).
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL SETUP (INSTABILITY
ADVECTING IN OFF THE GOMEX)...EVEN WITH PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY EXPECT
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS OF 1-2" PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS(HIGHEST
AROUND BROWNSVILLE-PORT MANSFIELD EAST TO SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND)...WHILE PER THE HIGH-RES CAMS EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
3-6" IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

HURLEY
$$





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