Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 271833
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...VALID 18Z SUN JUL 27 2014 - 00Z TUE JUL 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNE GLW 35 SSE LUK 15 WSW TZR 25 ESE TDZ 30 SW CWSN
35 WNW ROC 10 S ART 10 SW CMWD 10 WNW CYOY 45 ENE CWHV
10 WNW IZG 10 SSW AQW 25 S BGM 15 S UNV 30 E HSP 20 SSW I16
35 NNW OQT 30 NNE GLW.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE E33 15 E MYP 25 WSW APA 35 SSW LIC 15 WSW SPD 35 SW DHT
40 W TCC 25 N CQC 25 ESE E33.

...COLORADO/NEW MEXICO...

STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH INFLOW NEARLY OPPOSITE TO
OUTFLOW FAVOR TRAINING AND/OR QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS EMBEDDED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES TO AS MUCH AS 1
TO 1.25 OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RAIN RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY WHEN FFG VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOWER.

...OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS...

EXPANDING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING BACK-BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING AS IT MOVES STEADILY INTO A REGION OF LOWER FFG
VALUES...WITH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED
GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.  BY LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...EXPECT FFG VALUES TO GRADUALLY LOWER DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.  THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...
WITH LOCALIZED REGIONS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY AIDED BY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT RATES
THAT MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES.

JAMES



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