Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 290719
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VALID 12Z WED JUL 29 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EOK 25 WSW EOK 20 E STJ 25 N LWC 20 WNW TOP 20 N MHK 25 ENE BIE
15 SSW HNR 15 ESE CIN 15 W CCY 20 NE DEH 10 NNE OVS 10 NW EFT
10 SSE RFD VYS EOK.


SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN PRIOR TO OR SHORTLY AFTER THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL THEN FOCUS
OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER CLOSED HIGH ENHANCE
UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT FROM
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN
KS---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW OVER NORTHEAST
NM---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGHER
FARTHER EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW KS---CAN NOT RULE OUT RUNOFF
ISSUES HERE ALSO GIVEN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.


SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS---ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
AGAIN POSSIBLE.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF DETAILS---BUT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS. WITH
FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW FROM EASTERN TN INTO SW TO NW VA AND
EASTERN WV---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC
$$




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