Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 260051
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT NOV 26 2016 - 12Z SAT NOV 26 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 WSW OTH 40 WSW OTH OTH 10 ESE OTH 20 WSW RBG 15 NW SXT
10 WSW SXT 25 SSW SXT 40 W SIY 45 WSW SIY 30 NW O54 20 WNW O54
25 WSW O54 30 SW O54 40 SSW O54 40 SE O87 30 S O87 30 SSW O87
65 WSW O87.


...NORTHWEST CA/SOUTHWEST OR...

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AND INTO SOUTHWEST OR.  00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED
HEIGHTS ALREADY FALLING AS AN IMPULSE OFFSHORE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS
DIRECTED FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.

THE MAIN IMPACTS ON THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHWEST CA AND
SOUTHWEST OR WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...WITH A
RAMP UP IN THE PCPN INTENSITY AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES.  THERE
ARE SOME NEGATIVES AT PLAY...SUCH AS PW VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY
ANOMALOUS AHEAD OF THESE DIGGING HEIGHT FALLS...WITH VALUES EITHER
AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVEN SO...THE STRONG AND
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING PERIOD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
SOME ADDITONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM NORTHWEST CA INTO
SOUTHWEST OR WHERE AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS...AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS REACHING OVER 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

BANN
$$





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