Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230828
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 23 2017 - 12Z WED MAY 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW KVOA 30 SSW JKA 15 SSW JKA JKA 20 N CEW 20 WSW TOI
15 ESE MGM 15 NW CSG 10 SSW CCO FTY 15 NE 47A 15 S RHP 25 W AVL
15 WSW TNB 15 ENE HLX 15 S LYH RIC FYJ 25 SSW MFV 45 ENE NTU
50 E MQI 40 SE HSE 105 SSE MRH 130 E NRB 15 E LEE 50 W PIE
130 WSW SPG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SSE NPA 25 SW HRT VPS 30 E CEW 10 SSW OZR 15 SSE TOI
30 SW LSF 10 ENE CSG 15 SE HQU 15 SE FLO PGV 10 NNE CPK
20 ESE NTU 15 SSE MQI 35 SE NCA 25 E NRB 25 SW SGJ 45 NW BKV
85 WNW PIE 110 S AAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW MRN 10 E MWK MTV DAN 10 S DAN 15 ENE GSO 10 NNE EXX
10 WNW JQF 15 SE GYH 15 W CEU 10 WSW MRN.


FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC


A BROAD MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST---NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD.   A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE IN THE
BROAD WEST SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC---ACCENTUATING LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THE
ANOMALOUS PW AXIS THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY.   THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS PERIOD---WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ AND TOTALS OF 2-4"+
ARE POSSIBLE.  RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A LOT OF MODEL ERROR
IN QPF DETAILS---WITH OFTEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BEING
THESE HI RES ARW AND NMMB MODELS.   THESE MODELS WERE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY THIS PERIOD FOR QPF DETAILS.

ORAVEC

$$





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