Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230054
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

...VALID 01Z FRI JUN 23 2017 - 12Z FRI JUN 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW FWA 10 W SPI 30 NNE CDJ 15 SSW FOD 10 ENE TOB 15 ENE CLI
15 NE ACB CWWX 30 ENE CYVV 15 S CWLS 25 WNW ERI 10 SSW IPT MUI
10 NW HGR 20 ENE PHD 20 WNW FWA.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S KXIH 10 WSW GLS IAH 35 NNW UTS 10 ESE 3T1 30 W RUE
10 WSW SAR 30 W EYE ZZV 20 SSE MGW 30 ESE HSP 15 SE EHO
15 WNW IIY WRB 35 ESE LSF 10 NW MAI 45 SW PAM 40 SE RAM.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW PIE 40 WSW OCF 30 WNW JAX JAX 20 ENE VVG 20 NNW PGD
20 S SRQ 15 WSW PIE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S CWGD 20 E GRR 15 ESE EFT 20 NW DBQ 15 E DEH CMY 10 NE OSH
HTL 40 WSW CYVV 15 S CWGD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N 7R3 25 SW SRN 15 SE KCRH 30 W KVBS 10 S LFK 30 ENE OSA
20 S RUE 10 WSW MDH 20 S BAK 30 SSE ILN 15 W CRW BLF 20 W TNB
15 W CEU 30 ENE OPN 15 NNE CSG 25 S OZR 30 S HRT RAM 20 ENE KMDJ
10 WNW 2GL 10 SSE HDC 20 NNW NMM 10 NW 1M4 40 NNE MSL 65 E MKL
20 ESE MKL 35 SSE OLV 20 W HKS 25 N 7R3.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PIB 20 SSW TCL 20 WSW BHM 20 WNW ALX 15 N NSE 15 ENE KMIS
20 NE AXO NEW 30 E PIB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE BPT 25 ENE JAS 25 SW SHV 20 ESE TXK 10 N SRC 10 SSW CGI
25 S CIR 15 E M97 15 NNE GLH 25 NW HEZ 30 WNW BTR 10 NE 7R4
15 WSW KVNP 15 ESE KVBS 20 NE BPT.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
BQP 15 ENE ACP 20 NE CWF 20 SSW DRI 20 NW POE 10 SSE SHV
20 NW ELD 20 SSE SGT 30 N GLH BQP.


2200-0100 UTC UPDATES...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DAY 1 ERO BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL AND MESO/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE MORE
RECENT SHORT-TERM CAM PROGS. THROUGH 1200 UTC 06/23...THE LATEST
HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AND 1800 UTC NAM CONUS NEST CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION (POCKETS OF 3-6+ INCHES) OVER
NORTHERN-CENTRAL LA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
AR...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE PATH OF SLOW MOVING TD CINDY.
SHARPENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG A SSW-NNE AXIS WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON BOTH SIDES OF
CINDY`S SURFACE CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL BOOST
IN LOW LEVEL (ABOVE SURFACE) INFLOW ALONG CINDY`S PATH RELATIVE TO
THE MEAN LAYER FLOW...WEAKENING CORFIDI VECTORS VEERING N TO E
IMPLY  CELL TRAINING AND MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT RICH
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. PWS WILL REMAIN QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...AVERAGING 2.25-2.5" OR 3 TO 3.5 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS (2.61" AT KSHV PER THE
OBSERVED 00Z RAOB). MEANWHILE...WARM ABOVE 0C CLOUD LAYERS WITHIN
THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL OVER 12KFT PER THE
OBSERVED RAOBS AND SHORT RANGE PROGS...AGAIN HELPING TO MAXIMIZE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND THUS RAINFALL EFFICIENCY/SHORT TERM
RAINFALL RATES AS THE TALL/SKINNY DEEP-LAYER DISTRIBUTION OF CAPE
PERSISTS.

HURLEY


1500 UTC UPDATE...

AS PER SR WFO/RFCS AND WPC 1430 UTC COLLABORATION CALL...DECIDED
TO REMOVE THE PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK HIGH RISK AND MODERATE RISK AREAS FROM ERN TX TO THE LEFT
OF THE INLAND TRACK OF CINDY. LATEST RADAR AND STLT TRENDS DO NOT
SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND SOME MESO MODELS OVER ERN TX TODAY AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS OFFER
A LINGERING BUT LESSENED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THREAT POTENTIAL.

SCHICHTEL


...EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
CINDY...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY.*

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
ON THURSDAY, AS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
PER LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE
MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN
TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS UP THE OH RIVER, AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO
IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
LOCATIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN IS NEAR
CINDY AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OR FROM JUST NORTH OF IAH/GLS
THROUGH EASTERN TX/LFK INTO NWRN LA/SHV INTO SRN-SERN AR/ELD AND
EASTERN LIT INTO EASTERN-NERN AR/JUST WEST OF MEM TO JBR TO WHERE
THE MS RIVER MEETS THE OH. WITHIN THIS AXIS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EASILY LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP
TO 10-12 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WPC WENT WITH A MODERATE AND HIGH
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THIS CORRIDOR. ALSO, MULTIPLE FEEDER
BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AND TOUGH TO PEG THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE MESO
FEATURES. IN THESE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS, WPC
WENT WITH 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BUT VALUES COULD EASILY
APPROACH 7-8 INCHES IN PROLONGED BANDS. WPC WENT WITH A RATHER
LARGE MODERATE THREAT HERE IN ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THESE TROPICAL BANDS. FINALLY, MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FLOURISH OVER TN/KY AND SOUTHERN
IL/IN/OH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IS PROGGED BUT UP TO
4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WPC INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT HERE.

FOR MORE ON CINDY, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND VERY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, PWS AOA 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE
RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD FUEL THE ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM MN/IA TO MI. A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR
QPF WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM IA/SRN MN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. WPC KEPT
CONTINUITY HERE WITH KEEPING A SLIGHT THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.

MUSHER

$$




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