Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 221307
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...VALID 15Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE BHB 80 SE RKD 95 SSE RKD 95 ENE PVC 20 E PVC 15 NE PYM
15 ESE MQE BOS BED 10 S AFN 10 WSW AFN EEN 15 SSE VSF 10 E VSF
10 E LEB 20 NE 1P1 15 ENE MWN 30 ENE BML 20 N WVL 15 SSE BGR
25 SE BHB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W HQM 35 NW HQM 25 SSE UIL 25 ESE UIL 20 S CLM 30 SSE CLM
20 NNW SHN 10 NW SHN 15 WSW SHN 20 E HQM 20 ESE HQM 25 W TDO
25 WNW KLS 20 E AST 20 ESE AST 30 W SPB 20 ENE S47 20 WNW MMV
30 W SLE 20 ENE ONP 20 ESE ONP 20 WNW EUG 15 WNW EUG 10 WNW EUG
20 ESE CVO 20 SE SLE 15 E SLE 30 ESE UAO 45 S CZK 45 NW RDM
35 WNW RDM 35 WSW RDM 50 SW RDM 60 SW RDM 55 ENE RBG 35 E RBG
20 E RBG 15 ENE RBG 10 WSW RBG 25 NW SXT 30 SW SXT 25 ENE CEC
20 SE CEC 20 SSW CEC 25 WSW CEC 35 WNW CEC 50 NW CEC 45 NW OTH
20 W HQM.


...WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTAL RANGES INTO THE OREGON CASCADES...

LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF ISSUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WA/OR
COASTAL RANGES INTO THE OR CASCADES WHERE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER PWAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO CROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS AIMING INTO THE COASTAL RANGES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS GRADUALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
AND IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHWEST CA COASTAL
RANGES BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. PERSISTENT AND STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 50 TO 55 KTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINS AND
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE LATEST MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SET-UP...AND CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH ON SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESSIVE OF 5 INCHES.


...NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE SWINGING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
PERIOD.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS FROM
THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC NORTH UP INTO COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MA/NH AND SOUTHERN
ME...WHERE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 50 KTS IS PROGGED TO
SET UP TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

ORRISON
$$





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