Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

000
FOUS30 KWBC 182046
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

...VALID 21Z WED MAY 18 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 19 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W MMMA 60 NE MMMY 70 SSW MMPG 75 SSW 6R6 35 N E38 10 S INK
45 WSW BWD 15 ESE UVA 10 WSW ALI 25 W KMIU 15 WSW KOPM
40 ESE BRO 20 W MMMA.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W TMB 30 W PBI 25 W FPR 10 WNW MLB 30 NE VRB 15 ENE SUA
25 ESE MIA 25 SSE HST 35 SW HST 25 W TMB.



WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT OVER TX IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
RAMPS UP TOWARDS 25 KTS WHICH SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
1000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TX.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MOVE UP INTO THE 1.25-2" RANGE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KTS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CELLS TRAIN/MERGE OR IF CONVECTION
EVOLVES INTO A WAVY QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PATTERN WHICH
SOMETIMES LEADS TO SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING.


SOUTH FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF SOUTH FL GIVEN LOCALIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THERE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH FL SHOW
PRECIPITABLE RANGING FROM 2 INCHES AT MFL TO 2.25 INCHES AT
EYW...WITH VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER UP THE FL PENINSULA.  THE
OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE ARW DEVELOPED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER INDIAN RIVER AND ST LUCIE
COUNTIES...WHICH HAD 8-13" OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.  THE 12Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOWED SOME SPOTS PEAKING AROUND 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD
END IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME, WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTH ALONG THE PENINSULA TO THE MIAMI DADE AREA. GIVEN THE
URBANIZATION OF THE AREA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING APPEARS WARRANTED.

ROTH/BANN
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.