Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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752
FOUS30 KWBC 250846
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN SEP 25 2016 - 12Z MON SEP 26 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
95 WSW MRF 50 ESE MMCS 50 WNW GDP 25 WSW ATS 50 NE HOB
20 SSE CDS 20 WNW PWA 20 SE PNC PPF 10 SW JLN 20 WNW SLG
10 NNW AQR 10 ENE TKI 20 ENE LHB 30 SW 3T5 35 SSW SSF 25 SW MMNL.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 WSW MRF 45 SW GDP 35 W CNM 25 SW HOB 40 NNW BPG 50 S F05
10 SW 1F9 INJ 15 ESE GTU 15 E HDO 20 WNW COT 45 W MMNL.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 NW MMMV 35 SW 6R6 30 NE FST 30 SE BPG 35 NE SJT 25 ENE JCT
20 WSW UVA 45 S MMPG.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS....

SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL
AND THERMODYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR A MUCH-ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL IN QUESTION
CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION/EVOLUTION WITH A STRONG
E-W INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IN FACT...SOME OF THE NEW HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS)...MOST NOTABLY THE NSSL-WRF AND
WRF-ARW...INDICATE A BIT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION INTO THE
POOL OF GREATER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE BACKING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM S-SE TO E-NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS...THE INCREASING DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH TIME AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST CELLS MOVING FARTHER E-SE INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS TREND IS ALSO NOTED BY THE GFS AND
RGEM...THOUGH EVEN WITHOUT THE SAME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...GIVEN
THE STRONG EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) COMPONENT AND ANOMALOUS PW
ENVIRONMENT (2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE REMOVING THE 1-2+ INCH QPF OUT OF WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MIDLAND`S CWA...EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA WILL
MORE LIKELY FALL OVER A LONGER DURATION.

AS A RESULT...FOR THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO)...WPC
WILL MOVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA FARTHER
EAST...AT LEAST EAST OF FST (FORT STOCKTON) AND INK (WINK) WHERE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AOA 500 J/KG) WILL BE
MORE PERSISTENT AND SUPPORTIVE OF THE MORE INTENSE SHORT TERM
RAINFALL RATES.

HURLEY
$$





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