Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 191326
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...VALID 15Z SAT JUL 19 2014 - 12Z SUN JUL 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE HSA 10 NE PQL 20 WNW NSE 10 NNE CEW 20 ENE CEW
30 NNW ECP 15 NNW ECP 10 W ECP 20 WSW ECP 20 S DTS 35 S NPA
25 NNW KVKY 10 W 1B7 30 WSW 2GL 30 E SRN 10 NW SRN KVNP
20 NNW KVNP 25 NW 7R4 10 N LFT 10 W BTR 20 E BTR 10 NNE HSA.


15Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND
IMBEDDED IN HI PW AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY SWD ACRS SE LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TDA.  WHILE NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS THE PAST 2 DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...COULD STILL SEE SOME REPEATING CELLS IN SPOTS WHICH GIVEN
THE CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD 2 TO 3+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  SULLIVAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE..ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EAST-EASTNORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE H5 S/WV NOW ALONG THE
MID/UPPER TX COAST.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY IN WHAT IS AND WILL BE A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING AND
BROAD LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME OFF THE GULF..WHICH WILL IN
TURN KEEP VERY HIGH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN PLACE FROM LA
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE QPFS ARE ALL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY TO VERY
HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST..WITH SOME RATHER MINOR
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LATITUDE OF THESE HEAVIER RAINS.  THE NAM
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH..SO STAYED
SOUTH OF IT..IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GENERALLY MORE
AGREEABLE GUIDANCE.  THE VERY DEEP MOISTURE/HIGH PWS IN PLACE WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND
ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINS..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITONAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM SOUTHERN LA EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE.  ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS AND SOME ISOLATED 2-3+ INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD ARE
POSSIBLE.

TERRY





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