Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FOUS30 KWBC 021851
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2016

...VALID 21Z TUE FEB 02 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 03 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N DAY 25 N SGH VTA 25 NW UNI 50 WNW HTS 20 NW OQT 30 WNW RHP
10 N 1A5 20 W MRN 15 ENE FQD GMU 25 SW CEU 10 ENE GVL VPC
30 SW VPC 30 SW ANB EET 20 W EET 10 E TCL 20 WSW TCL 35 NE NMM
30 SSE GTR 25 SW GTR 40 W GTR 45 WSW TUP 35 SSE OLV 10 NNE MKL
10 WSW EVV 15 WSW BMG 15 S IND 15 N GEZ 30 WNW DAY 20 N DAY.


1800 UTC UPDATE

OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL REGION

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER TN VALLEY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FARTHER WESTWARD INITIATION
OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT ACROSS
THESE AREAS EARLY THIS PERIOD.  THE WESTWARD SHIFT WAS MOST
EMPHATIC IN THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB.  GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE IN THE
1200 UTC BASED GUIDANCE ON THE FARTHER WESTWARD INITIATION
SOLUTION---THIS WAS FOLLOWED IN THE LATEST DAY 1 QPF AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH 1200 UTC WED FEB 3.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION POSSIBLE IN THE AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH 1-2" TOTALS IN A FEW HOURS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS.  ENHANCED UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY TOTALS IN THE
2-5"+ RANGE FROM FAR UPSTATE SC INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NC.

ORAVEC
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.