National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FOUS30 KWBC 130123
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
922 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...VALID 03Z THU JUN 13 2013 - 00Z FRI JUN 14 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
WRI 10 N APG 15 NE GAI OKV 10 ENE EKN 20 WSW W22 20 SSW LHQ
30 E MIE 15 NNE MIE 25 SE VPZ SBN 20 SE LWA 20 W BIV 20 NW MKG
25 WNW AMN 25 E CWAJ ELZ 25 WSW ELM 10 NNW MSV POU 10 NW DXR
10 NW BDR 15 N HWV HWV 20 S ISP 25 SSE JFK WRI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE IDI AOO 25 NNE CBE 30 NNE PKB 25 SE AOH 20 SSE DFI
20 SE TDZ 10 N BVI 10 NE IDI.


THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK OTHER THAN TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  ONGOING BAND OF HVY
CNVCTV RAINS INVOF NRN IL/NRN IN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DVLP ESEWD
WITH SECONDARY MAX PSBL THRU LATER THIS EVNG ACROSS SRN LWR MI.
KORTY


ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES..AS COOL SEASON DYNAMICS COMBINE
WITH SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMICS TO PRODUCE LONG LIVED
AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY TO EVEN LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS.  IN GENERAL..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DIG THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE EASTERN SD
H5 S/WV THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
TIME.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET..AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS..ALONG WITH PWS POOLING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF THE FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY..WILL
FUEL THE VERY STRONG STORMS..WITH SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES/AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF CELL TRAINING EARLY IN THE PERIOD BACK OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DID..I STAYED ON
THE SOUTHERN END OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE..AS THE POTENTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SHIFT THE "EFFECTIVE" FRONT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST SYNOPTIC BNDRY.  EXPECT AN AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW TRACK WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS ALSO PROBABLE WITHIN THE THREAT AREA.

TERRY
$$