Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 170822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT MON APR 17 2017

...VALID 12Z MON APR 17 2017 - 12Z TUE APR 18 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW MMRX 50 SSW MMNL 35 NW LRD 15 NW COT 30 SSE HDO RND
10 WSW 62H 20 S 11R 20 NE 5R5 15 E PSX 20 W KMZG 15 NNE KOPM
10 NW BRO 30 WSW MMRX.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
DTN 15 WSW OSA TKI 10 ENE LUD 30 SE SPS 10 SSE DUC 10 SSW ADH
30 SW RKR 30 E FSM 20 SSE FLP 25 SSW POF 20 S LOZ HLX 10 S IPJ
20 SSE 1M4 35 W GTR 35 W MLU DTN.


SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS


A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS---THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY WITH QPF DETAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER--WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES---THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES.

SOUTH TX

A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS ALSO ADDED OVER SOUTH TX AHEAD OF HEIGHT
FALLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX
COAST.  MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CURRENT AREA OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TX WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARD 1200 UTC.
HOWEVER---THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-FIRING OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS OVER SOUTH TX
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  SIMILAR TO
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE WEST TO EAST FRONT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH---THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE.
WHILE WPC QPF IS DEPICTING AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS
OVER SOUTH TX---THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC

$$





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