Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 280058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VALID 01Z THU APR 28 2016 - 12Z THU APR 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S DAY 50 SE ILN 25 SSW HTS 15 NNW LNP 20 W 1A6 30 E GLW
15 SE FTK 25 N HNB 20 SSE DEC 20 NNE DEC 10 N DNV MIE 10 S DAY.


...01Z UPDATE...

REMOVED SOME OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.  THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE HI-RES GUIDANCE...AND
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS THAT REGION.  ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREA...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER
OF 1-2 INCHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST THAT IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR THEY MAY
PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...MIDWEST...

STGLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET PATTERN ACRS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WILL
PRIME REGION FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE PROVIDING LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A QSTNRY E/W FRONT
IN THE MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY.  STG INSTABILITY DVLPG TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
HELP SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A
SIGNAL IN THE HI RES MODELS SUPPORTING HEAVIER RAINS ACRS SRN IL
INTO SRN IN/WRN KY WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL
MODELS.  STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
CELLS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PROVIDE A THREAT OF RUNOFF
CONCERNS.  SOME LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 3 INCH SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE PSBL (AS SHOWN IN THE 06Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
FORECAST) WHICH WOULD EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES ACRS
THIS REGION.

PEREIRA/PETERSEN
$$




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