Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 220656
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...VALID 06Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHERN PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO 1
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THIS
AND VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX---EASTWARD INTO EAST TX---EASTERN OK AND
MOST OF LOUISIANA.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE.  THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MOVES DOWNSTREAM.  THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION OF THE UKMET---GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF IS FAVORED OVER THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM AND HI RES ARW/NMM.   THE HI RES ARW AND NMM
OFTEN ARE SLOW WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING DOWNSTREAM---WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/UKMET TYPE SOLUTION OFTEN PERFORMING
BETTER.  THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM BEING VERY HEAVY AND
LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FFG
VALUES.

ORAVEC
$$




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