Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 161433
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1032 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...VALID 15Z TUE MAY 16 2017 - 12Z WED MAY 17 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE OGA 25 ENE IML 20 ESE IML 25 WSW IML 40 W IML 35 SSE SNY
15 N SNY 35 SSE AIA 25 NW OGA 25 ENE OGA.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNW ERY 20 N MNM 10 NW OVS 20 S DSM 35 SE ICL TOP 10 N GOK
30 ENE ABI 20 SSW E29 15 E 6R6 25 S BPG 15 ENE CDS 10 N HHF
50 N RSL 30 SE HDE 30 NNE EAR 30 NNW BVN 30 ENE YKN 10 WSW OTG
15 NE OVL 10 NNW AXN 20 SSE KGWR 30 NW K2D5 25 ENE K46D CWGN
40 NNW CYQK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE JYG 10 NNE CDD IWD 20 N LNL EGV MDZ 20 SE MCW 15 S ICL
10 SSE MHK SLN 20 SW HJH OLU 20 NNW TQE 15 WNW FRM 10 ENE JYG.


...15 UTC UPDATE...

ONLY MADE A SMALL CHANGE TO THE EXPAND THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WPC
MARGINAL THREAT AREA TO INCLUDE FAR ERN ND AS PER ONGOING SHORT
TERM PCPN DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE THAT SEEMS TO OFFER SOME POTENTIAL
DESPITE PROGRESSION GIVEN FFG.

SCHICHTEL


...NRN KS NEWD INTO NW WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...

HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE ECNTL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF TRAINING TSTMS DVLP ALONG A SLOWING/STALLING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TUES NIGHT.   WITH THE INITIAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM OVER ERN SD MOVING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY TUES
NIGHT..THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW/STALL BACK TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA/NRN KS AND BECOME NEARLY
ALIGNED WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING AND
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV TROF OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
TUES NIGHT.  WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MLCAPE VALUES ARE FCST TO
INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 THSD PLUS J/KG ALONG THE FRONT FROM KS NEWD
INTO SRN MN/WRN WI BY LATE TUES AFTN.  85H WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KTS WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB INTO IA/SRN MN/WRN WI.  EXPECT STORMS TO
DVLP ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY TUES
EVENING AHEAD OF DVLPG SFC LOW OVER KS WITH STORMS EXPANDING NEWD
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.  PATRN WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT TRAINING
OF CELLS AND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST AS STORM MODE BECOMES
MORE OF A LINEAR OR MCS STRUCTURE..THE BAND COULD BECOME SLOW
MOVING WITH POTNL BACKBUILDING ESPECIALLY ACRS PORTONS OF IA/NEB
TUES NIGHT.  HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR ISOLD 3 HOUR
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ACRS THIS AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
RUNOFF ISSUES.

SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WAS DEPICTED FOR REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN TX.  MDTLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTL/SRN TX NWD INTO OK AS
STGR HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO NW/WRN TX TUES EVENING..BUT THESE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE ISOLD..RESTRICTED TO STGR CONVECTIVE
CELLS DVLPG ALONG POTNL SQLN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SLOWER MOVING
SRN FLANKING LINE. A SMALL MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS ALSO DEPICTED
ACRS PARTS OF SW NEB/NE CO WITH HEAVIER RAINS/EMBDD CONVECTION
WITH EVOLVING COMMA HEAD BAND TUES NIGHT.  COULD SEE THE POTNL FOR
A NARROW SLOWER ROTATING BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE EVOLVING 7H CIRC SOUTH OF THE SAND HILLS REGION THAT
MAY LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.

SULLIVAN
$$





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