Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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736
FOUS30 KWBC 161441
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

VALID 15Z Fri Feb 16 2018 - 12Z Sat Feb 17 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E LNP 20 NNW 1A6 25 NW SME 20 SSW 3I2 25 E PKB LBE 20 S JST
15 SW W99 15 SSE LWB 20 E LNP.


...Lower OH Valley, Central-Northern Appalachians, Laurel
Highlands,

As the upper trough approaches, increasing confluence downstream
and attendant strengthening upper jet (170+ kts at 250 mb) will
continue to bolster the low-level frontogenesis with time,
supporting continuing rainfall.
The southeast movement of the upper jet and resultant movement in
the low level convergence bands allows for swifter east-southeast
progression of both the surface front and pw plume today. WPCQPF
comprises a multi-model blend of both global and high-res
guidance, particularly the means, which yielded additional QPF of
0.50-1.0" from eastern KY into much of WV and far southwestern
pa-western MD. Although the threat for cell training will continue
to diminish with time given the faster frontal progression (as the
post-frontal low-level flow becomes more orthogonal to the front),
the wet antecedent conditions and resultant low FFG values early
in the period will support maintaining a "marginal" risk for
excessive rainfall in the day 1 ERO.

Petersen/Hurley
$$





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