Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FOUS30 KWBC 241348
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...VALID 15Z WED DEC 24 2014 - 12Z THU DEC 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W JAX 10 E CTY 50 SW CTY 70 SE AAF 60 SE AAF 45 SSE AAF
30 SE AAF 20 E AAF 20 ENE TLH 15 W DQH VDI 20 W TBR 10 W JYL JYL
15 SE JYL 10 SW SAV 15 NNW BQK 25 W JAX.

MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MOSTLY TO
REMOVE THE MODERATE THREAT AND DECREASE THE SLIGHT RISK.  THE LINE
OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING
THRU THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE..THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GA..AND SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FROM HERE
ON AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THRU THE REGION.
VERY DEEP/HIGH MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE..AS PER OBSERVED PWS OF 2 INCHES THIS MORNING AT TLH..SO SOME
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE PASSAGE.
HOWEVER..THESE BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE FALLING IN AREAS JUST
EAST OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL LAST DAY OR SO..SO FLASH
FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING..ESPECIALLY BY MID AFTERNOON.
 STILL..SOME ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO COULD LEAD
TO SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EWB 10 ENE WST 15 W GON 15 E HPN 20 NW BLM TTN PTW 12N 15 S MGJ
35 NE POU ORH BED 10 W BVY 20 ESE BVY EWB.

STRONG DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS ALONG WITH A SURGE OF PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD
TO STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE BOUNDARYY FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WITH HIGHEST PWS AND LOW LEVEL JET BECOMING NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
THE FRONT..EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARYY FROM NORTHERN NJ INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES IN SEVERAL HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD APPROACH OR EVEN
EXCEED LOCAL FFG VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NJ.  EXPECT
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS TO LINGER UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION CHRISTMAS MORNING.

TERRY

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.