Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 231849
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...VALID 18Z FRI JAN 23 2015 - 00Z SUN JAN 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


... FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN SC/NC...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SAT MRNG.  EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS TO SPREAD NEWD UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75+ INCHES (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM) ALONG WITH
40 TO 50+ KT S-SW 850 MB JET AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG TAPPED FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND THE ATLC GULF
STREAM) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
BANDS AND HIGHER (POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE) RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THETA E INFLOW NOTED PER THE MODELS...THE
SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIBBON OF
850 MB MOISTURE FLUX EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SE GA...TO THE TUNE OF 4-5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AREAL-AVERAGE QPF WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3+
INCHES...THOUGH PER RECENT TRENDS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 3-4+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...WHICH GIVEN THE CURRENT 6
HOURLY FFG... COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TRAIN OFF THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND ATLANTIC GULF STREAM OFF THE SE COAST.

HURLEY

$$




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