Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 171457
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...VALID 15Z SUN JUL 17 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 18 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE CAV 20 NNE DBQ 15 ESE UGN SBN 20 ENE GEZ 20 E HNB
10 NNW HSB ALN 20 W UIN 35 NNE CDJ 25 NNE STJ FNB 15 W AFK CBF
15 WNW CIN 30 SE CAV.


...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONITNUED TO MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG A LINE FROM EASTERN WI INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
IA INTO NORTHEAST KS.

THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL SEEMED TO BE DOING THE BEST THIS MORNING IN
HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THAT PART OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM
WI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL.  SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES HERE CONSIDERING THAT THE CORE OF HIGHEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP MOVING STEADILY.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE AND
HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IT MAY WELL BE THAT CLOUD COVER FROM
CONVECTION OVER IA/MO DURING THE AFTERNOON PROVIDES A CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WHICH LIMITS THE BUILD UP OF CAPE DUE TO INSOLATION.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUND OF CONVECTION
TRAVERSING THE SAME AREA AND THE FACT THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS ABLE
TO GENERATE SOME INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHTHOURS PRECLUDES REMOVING THE SLIGHT RISK AT THIS
POINT.

TO THE WEST...SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER IA INTO FAR ERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS WHICH
WAS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL THINKING.  THE 12Z SOUNDING
AT DDC SHOWED A 55 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THIS
AREA...LEADING CREDENCE TO THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL SOLN.  WHILE MUCH
OF KS LOOKS TO BE CAPPED...THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND HIGHER PW MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED RAFL RATES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
 THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVES AT PLAY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SUCH AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS WHICH MAKE THE CAP STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION OVER MO.  AS A RESULT...WE ENDED UP PULLING THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF THE SLIGHT RISK WAS PULLED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
ITS EARLIER POSITION BUT STILL KEPT THE AREA PRIMARILY IN IA IN
DEFERENCE TO THE CAP.

BANN

$$





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