Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240828
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI MAR 24 2017 - 12Z SAT MAR 25 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SW O87 35 WNW ACV 10 N CEC 25 E CEC 35 NE ACV 25 WSW O54
35 WSW RBL 35 NNE STS 10 N APC APC NUQ SJC WVI 40 WNW MRY
55 SW SFO 70 WSW SFO.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WNW POF 15 W JBR 30 ESE SRC PBF 35 WSW LLQ 10 SSE ELD
30 WNW ELD 25 SE TXK 20 WNW SHV 15 NNE OCH 15 SSW JSO 15 NNW JSO
15 SW 4F4 10 NW OSA 25 NNW LBR 30 WSW RKR 15 SE GMJ 40 NW SGF
10 SSE SZL 45 NNE DMO 25 S IRK 35 SE IRK 25 E COU 30 SE VIH
45 NE UNO 45 WNW POF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E ROG 20 NW HRO HRO 20 SSE HRO 25 N RUE 10 ESE RUE 25 N HOT
15 S MWT 10 WNW TXK 25 E OSA 30 ESE LBR 10 NW DEQ 30 SSE RKR
20 NNE FSM 25 E ROG.


...ERN SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY DAY1. A WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL LIFT FROM ERN COLORADO
NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH UNDERNEATH...A
FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE FAVORING THE ARW AND WPC CONTINUITY
SHOWS A SWATH OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS PER AN ENHANCED/POTENT LLJ THAT WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS PER SPC AHEAD
OF A TRAILING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLATED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. SUSPECT THAT
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH SOME TRAINING/RUNOFF ISSUE POTENTIAL WILL
FLOURISH OVER ERN OK/NERN TX AND THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY FRI/FRI
NIGHT WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY 2-4" AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LOCAL TERRAIN LIFT INTO THE
OUACHITA AND OZARK MOUNTAINS.


N-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST

BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A LONG FETCH DEEPENED MOISTURE PLUME FROM
NORTH OF HAWAII TO THE WEST COAST WITH EMBEDDED DERIVED RAINFALL
RATES RANGING UP TO .25-.35" PER HOUR OFFSHORE WITH LOW/WAVE
POOLING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NRN AND CENTRAL CA ASSOCIATED AS A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED AND STEADILY PROGRESSIVE
ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACH AND MOVE INLAND. THE GREATEST PW
ANOMALIES AND STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS UPCOMING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ARE SLATED FOR THE N-CENTRAL CA COASTAL
RANGES THAT MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE PW ANOMALIES WILL
REACH UPWARDS OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"+ ARE LIKELY...WITH
DURATION MAX TOTALS OF 5"+ POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS.

SCHICHTEL
$$




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