Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 281351
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE JUL 28 2015 - 12Z WED JUL 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EOK 25 WSW EOK 20 E STJ 25 N LWC 20 WNW TOP 20 N MHK 25 ENE BIE
15 SSW HNR 15 ESE CIN 15 W CCY 20 NE DEH 10 NNE OVS 10 NW EFT
10 SSE RFD VYS EOK.


MID MS VALLEY

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MB AND WESTERN ONTARIO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY  WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS---ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED HI RES AND HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS---WAS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MO VALLEY FROM SOUTHWEST WI ACROSS IOWA ...WESTERN IL...NW
MO...AND NORTHEAST KS.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO---RUNOFF ISSUES
POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.  ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE THREAT DUE TO HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PLUS THE LOW FFG
GUIDANCE UNDER AN INCH IN 6 HOURS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST
MO BORDER.


PETERSEN/ORAVEC
$$




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