Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 021422
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
921 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

...VALID 15Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z TUE MAR 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ESE IGM 20 W PRC 35 SE PRC 25 NNE SDL 30 NW LUF 30 WNW LUF
35 W LUF 40 NW GBN 30 W GBN 50 SW GBN 65 SE YUM 60 SE YUM
35 SSE YUM 35 NE BLH 40 SE EED IFP 15 NW IGM 25 NNE IGM
25 ENE IGM 45 ESE IGM.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW ESF 10 WNW HEZ 30 N MCB 35 ENE MCB 20 W HBG 30 WSW HBG
30 ESE MCB 15 WNW HDC BTR 20 W BTR 30 N LFT ACP 15 NW ACP
20 NE POE 20 WNW AEX 15 NNW AEX 15 NNW ESF.


1400 UTC UPDATE

CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED OVER CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS
WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION IS
POSSIBLE.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON---1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN AND
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY---REPEAT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS MAY MOVE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE LOWERED FFG VALUES.   SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS
OF .50-1" AND ISOLATED ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4" MAY POSE RUNOFF
ISSUES.

OVER WESTERN ARIZONA---THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER IN THE CURRENT AXIS OF SLOW
MOVING ORGANIZED RAINFALL.  PW VALUES IN THIS AXIS ARE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  THIS AND THE CURRENT SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION OF THE ENTIRE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL CONTINUE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES THIS MORNING FROM SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF.50-1".  THE RUNOFF RISK SHOULD BE
DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM
TROF BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD---RESULTING IN A MORE EASTWARD
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


WRN ARIZONA

POTNL STILL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY MON FOR PSBL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AHEAD OF UPR LOW ACRS SRN CA THAT IS EXPECTED EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
MON AFTN/EVEN ACRS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS A WEAKENING OPEN S/WV
TROF.  AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX (4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACRS MUCH OF WRN AZ THROUGH THE MRNG HOURS.   LOCALIZED RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OF .50-1"+ WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 1-3"+ INCHES

SULLIVAN
$$




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