Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180811
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...VALID 12Z MON SEP 18 2017 - 12Z TUE SEP 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE CDS 40 ESE PVW 20 WSW LBB 25 W PVW 20 WNW HHF 15 SE DDC
25 SSE HDE 20 WSW OLU TQE AIO 20 NNW STJ 40 SSW EMP 10 W PNC
15 WSW PWA 20 NNE PVJ 10 E MKO 25 SSW RKR 30 NE RPH 40 SSE CDS.


...EAST-CENTRAL U.S...

A S/WV TROF NOW EXITING THE GREAT BASIN IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
ENEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT
BEFORE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY TO THE
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO INCREASE LIFT OVER
A SLOW MOVING FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
EMBEDDED ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION MON AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS ENEWD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40 KTS
MON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU
THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC AS PER
WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THERE REMAINS DECENT SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE SFC LOW AND
LEADING WARM FRONT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM ERN KS/NE OK EWD TO
IA/MO/IL. FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT ALSO SUPPORTS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW. ACCORDINGLY...A WPC
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERN KS/FAR
NERN OK INTO MUCH OF MO AND PARTS OF IA/IL WHERE SOME CELL
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE.

SCHICHTEL
$$




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