Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 030100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2016

...VALID 01Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 03 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE HEZ 25 NE GWO 20 SW EHR 15 NNW BAK 25 N DAY 10 WSW 4I3
UNI 35 W LNP 15 SSW TYS 1A5 20 W MRN 15 ENE FQD 25 WSW AND
10 NE RYY 35 NNE GZH 15 WNW HSA 10 ESE BTR 10 SE HEZ.



OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL REGION

0100 UTC UPDATE...UPDATED THE PREVIOUS DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS... ALONG WITH THE LATEST
(18Z) SSEO 40KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 3 AND 6 HOURLY QPF
EXCEEDING THE CURRENT FFG...WHICH IN SOME AREAS INCREASE TO OVER
50% IN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY (WRN-CENTRAL TN) OVERNIGHT.

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


1800 UTC UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER TN VALLEY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FARTHER WESTWARD INITIATION
OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT ACROSS
THESE AREAS EARLY THIS PERIOD.  THE WESTWARD SHIFT WAS MOST
EMPHATIC IN THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB.  GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE IN THE
1200 UTC BASED GUIDANCE ON THE FARTHER WESTWARD INITIATION
SOLUTION---THIS WAS FOLLOWED IN THE LATEST DAY 1 QPF AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH 1200 UTC WED FEB 3.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION POSSIBLE IN THE AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH 1-2" TOTALS IN A FEW HOURS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS.  ENHANCED UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY TOTALS IN THE
2-5"+ RANGE FROM FAR UPSTATE SC INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NC.

ORAVEC
$$




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