Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 120831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 12 2017 - 12Z SUN AUG 13 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S OLS 30 S OLS 15 SSE TUS 25 ESE IWA 35 NNE DVT PRC 20 W FLG
20 WNW INW 25 WNW SJN 65 S GNT 70 S ABQ 30 NW 4CR 25 NNE CQC
20 ENE SKX 25 SSE ALS 10 S CPW 30 ESE TEX 30 SSE GUC 35 SE MYP
20 NE TAD 20 WSW SPD 50 W GCK 25 ESE GLD 20 E GLD 30 WSW LBF
30 SW VTN 10 SW PIR 10 SSW MBG 20 NNW K7L2 30 SW JMS KGWR 8D3
20 NNW FSD 20 E ONL 10 S AUH 40 WSW CNK 20 WSW ICT 25 WSW BVO
30 ESE FSM 30 WNW ELD 30 N ESF 20 W MCB 15 SSW HBG GPT 10 S BIX
15 E S58 10 W KCMB 35 ENE CXO 25 SSE CRS 30 S RPH 45 N DYS
10 SE LBB 25 WSW LBB 35 E ATS 35 W GDP 35 SSE MMCS 100 SSW MMCS.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 E FFA 25 ESE MQI 35 NNE MRH 20 ESE SUT 10 ESE MYR 15 NE MEB
10 NNE TTA 10 E TDF 25 S LKU 15 NW 2W6 15 NNW GED 65 ESE WWD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HLC 15 E MCK 30 SSE TIF 30 NNW ODX 20 NW GRI 40 S HSI 50 N RSL
HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE PYX 25 E WWR 10 WSW GOK 30 NW MLC 35 SW RKR 15 S DEQ
30 SW TXK JXI 10 ESE TRL HQZ 15 WNW 1F9 15 SW F05 30 W CDS
25 SSE AMA 10 NNW AMA 20 N DUX 20 S GUY 20 ENE PYX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
FFA 35 NE NKT 10 SSE NCA ISO 15 SSE EMV AKQ 20 NNE PHF WAL
40 ESE OXB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW JWG 10 WSW PWA 10 SE SNL 25 SSE MLC 25 NNE PRX 10 SE PRX
20 N GVT 15 SSW GYI 30 E SPS 15 WNW FDR 30 NE CDS 40 ESE PPA
20 SSE HHF 35 ESE HHF 35 NNW CSM 20 WSW JWG.


...SOUTHWEST AND S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND UP
ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES DAY1 WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY/VORT ENERGIES...A MAIN FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS DEEP
MOISTURE PLUMES NEWD FROM MEXICO/LOW LATITUDES. EXPECTS PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY CONVECTION WITH RUNOFF PROBLEMS TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK/NRN TX IN A REGION OF INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE UPPER JET FLOW/DIFFLUENCE AS AMPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SHIFTS EWD FROM NM. A WAVY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BNDRY SUNK INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
HELP CONTINUE THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SAT INTO SUN. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS/SRN
OK AND ALSO REMAIN HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST...SO CELLS SHOULD PROVE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS. WPC CONTINUITY WAS USED AS BLENDED WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THEN NBM DAY1 TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT SWD QPF SHIFT.

MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK OF AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF OK/N TX AS PER MOST RECENT
COLLABORATIONS/CONTINUITY...BUT DID SHIFT THE AREA SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TO ADDRESS LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

...N-CENTRAL PLAINS...

IMPULSES DIGGING THROUGH A MEAN NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL
PRODUCE ASCENT. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AOA
1.25 INCHES OVER NEB/SD BY SAT AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR INCREASING CONVECTION. CUT BACK ON
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA HERE CONSISTENT
WITH SUSPECTED ACTIVITY...BUT HELD IN PLACE THE NEBRASKA SLIGHT
RISK AREA GIVEN MODEL SUPPORT/DEEPEST RETURN FLOW POTENTIAL.

...ERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...

AN AXIS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONT OVER THE ERN
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. DEEP LOWER LATITUDE MOISTURE UPWARDS TO
2-2.5 INCHES WILL PLUME/CHANNEL NEWD TO FUEL ACTIVITY WITHIN A
LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PERSISTENT AND SLOW MOVING SOUTHEAST US VORT ENERGIES. INTRODUCED
A MODERATE THREAT AREA WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SLIGHT RISK IN
THE DEEP MOISTURE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL
$$





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