Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230803
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE AUG 23 2016 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW PNT 15 N TAZ 25 SE PPQ 30 WSW PPQ 45 S IRK 35 SSW CDJ
15 S OJC 30 S IXD 20 SW UKL 20 WNW HUT 10 ESE HYS 30 E HLC
20 ESE HDE 20 WSW BVN 30 ENE MHE 25 NNE BKX 15 SSE BBB
10 ENE LJF 15 SW RNH 20 S EAU 20 SW MFI 25 SSE ISW 20 NNE DLL
20 SE MSN 10 SE RFD 20 WNW PNT.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
85 S MMCS 50 S MMCS 20 SSW MMCS 25 NNW ELP 35 NNE LRU
30 ESE TCS 45 NE TCS 45 WSW 4CR 15 WSW 4CR 30 ENE 4CR 35 WNW CVS
50 NNE CVN 20 SE AMA 40 WNW CDS 30 SSW CDS SNK 40 E FST
40 WNW 6R6 80 S E38 120 E MMCU.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 W 4HV 50 NNW GJT 10 E CAG 45 WSW LAR 15 WSW LAR PUM
15 ENE GXY 30 NNW LIC 40 SSW LIC 30 WSW LHX 15 NE RTN 25 NNW SKX
15 SSW E33 45 NNW 4SL 25 NNW GNT 30 SSE SJN 40 SSW SOW 30 NE SDL
25 E PRC 50 W 40G 50 S SGU 25 ENE SGU 25 NNW BCE 40 W 4HV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW AEL 20 SSW FKA 15 NW DBQ 10 WSW SQI 20 E GBG 30 ENE UIN
20 NE IRK 30 N CDJ 25 NNW STJ FNB 10 WSW BIE 25 NNE HJH
10 NE AUH 10 NE BVN 25 WNW OFK 25 ENE YKN 15 SE PQN 20 WNW AEL.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W GJT 10 NNE RIL 20 N EGE 15 WNW CCU LXV 20 SW MYP
10 NNW CPW 20 N FMN 40 WSW CEZ 40 SSW 4BL 45 SW 4BL 40 W 4BL
35 ESE 4HV CNY 20 W GJT.



SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES

A WELL DEFINED VORT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION
THIS PERIOD.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST UT---SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL CO---NORTHERN AZ.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  CONFIDENCE
ON QPF DETAILS LOW---BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WELL DEFINED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---LOCALLY HEAVY AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TX

A SERIES OF VORTS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST MEAN TROF AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
CLOSED HIGH.  THESE VORTS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCENTUATE LIFT IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN AXIS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SW TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NM.  WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
INTO SOUTHWEST TX---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WITH A
MARGINAL RISK AREA DEPICTED.


EASTERN NEBRASKA---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---IA---FAR WEST CENTRAL IL
INTO FAR NORTHERN MO

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW---INCREASING PW VALUES ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION THIS PERIOD  AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY.   MODELS ARE
CONVERGING ON A POTENTIAL MAX PRECIP AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF IA AND
FAR NORTHERN MO---ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERING MAX AXES AMONG THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.  THE LATEST NSSL WRF IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS---ACROSS EASTERN NE---NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---WHILE THE 0000 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED FARTHER
NORTH FROM THEIR 1200 UTC MON RUNS INTO NORTHEAST NE---NW IA AND
FAR SOUTHERN MN.  THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL QPF AXES FOR
THIS UPCOMING EVENT---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DETAILS---BUT HIGHER FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY (WPC AND NDFD) KEEPING THE MAX AXIS OVER EASTERN
NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---IA AND NORTHERN MO.  INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY  LOW LEVEL FLOW AFTER 0000 UTC
WED MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WED.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS CONTINUE--WITH A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING
ISOLATED 3-5"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


ORAVEC
$$





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