Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 020130
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

...VALID 03Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 00Z TUE MAR 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ESE IGM 20 W PRC 35 SE PRC 25 NNE SDL 25 NW DVT 40 WNW LUF
50 WNW GBN 55 E YUM 25 SE YUM 15 WSW NYL 35 SSE BLH 30 NNE BLH
EED 25 NW IGM 25 NNE IGM 25 ENE IGM 45 ESE IGM.


FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FROM FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA.  THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES (2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX (4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THIS CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST... SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ANOMALOUS MOIST PROFILE
AND THE OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
MOVING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHWEST AZ.  LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLATED
SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF .50-1"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS
THIS PERIOD OF 1-3"+.

ORAVEC/HURLEY
$$




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