Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 261340
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
939 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...VALID 15Z WED AUG 26 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...EASTERN HALF OF ME...

SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ME INTO THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF AND/OR FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT..AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED BY A H5 S/WV MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS..WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES IN AN HOUR OR SO POSSIBLE..WHICH AGAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME
RUNOFF/ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MCD0469
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS EVENT.


SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EARLIER THINKING OUT IN THE 4
CORNERS REGION.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

...4 CORNERS REGION...

A COUPLE OF RATHER WELL DEFINED VORTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL AID BROAD
SCALE LIFT ESPECIALLY THRU PARTS OF NRN AZ INTO UT/WRN CO AND NW
NM THIS PD WITH ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH MSTR LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME
DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
TERRAIN.  LIMITING FACTOR HERE APPEARS TO BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.  IF ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST DO
DVLP...THEN POTNL FOR SOME EMBDD HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
INCREASE AND IN TURN..THAT COULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF ISOLD
RUNOFF ISSUES.


SULLIVAN/TERRY
$$





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