Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 070134
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

...VALID 03Z MON JUL 07 2014 - 00Z TUE JUL 08 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS PERIOD IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/4 CORNERS REGION. THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS HIGH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND WEAK...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
SOUTH OF THE BROAD...CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...TAPERING SOMEWHAT LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE OUTFLOWS AND DWINDLING CAPES BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  HAVE TRIED TO TIE IN
THE MORE ORGANIZED AND MODERATE CONVECTION/RAINS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
VICINITY OF THE 500 MB VORT LOBE/SHEAR AXIS...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

TERRY/HURLEY
$$




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