Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 280659
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...VALID 06Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 12Z TUE JUL 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
AMA 25 N CVN 50 SW TCC SAF 25 NNW SKX 20 N ALS 30 W AFF
20 WSW LIC 35 ENE LAA 15 NNW LBL 20 S PYX AMA.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW CWPD 15 S CWQO 30 ESE CWIY 25 NE MLT 10 SE AUG ASH AFN
35 SSW ALB 15 S ELM 20 ENE DKK 20 SE CWRK 35 NW CWPD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE CAO 15 SSE CAO 40 N TCC 40 NW TCC 40 NNE LVS RTN
25 SW PUB 20 E LHX 30 NE CAO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CYMX 15 NNW CWBS 15 WNW CWTN 20 NW CWST 30 ESE CWST
55 N GNR GNR 50 SW GNR 15 WSW BML 10 SE MPV RUT 10 WNW GFL
25 E GTB 20 WSW CYMX.


...COLORADO/NEW MEXICO...

ONCE ON GOING CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO REMAIN IN THE BEST POSITION FOR CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  STRONGLY VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT NEARLY OPPOSITE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING
TRAINING AND/OR QUASI STATIONARY CELLS.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1 T 1.25 INCHES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO THE
NAM WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAINTAINED A MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HERE BASED ON THE IDEA
THAT FFG VALUES WILL HAVE COME DOWN AS A RESULT OF AREAS OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING.

...NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS...

LONGER TERM THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HELP FOCUS BROAD SCALE AND DEEP LAYERED ASCENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF ITS PATH.  BETWEEN THE MOIST INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE STRONG DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN..OPTED FOR A LOW END MDT RISK FROM UPSTATE NY INTO THE
PARTS OF VT/NH AND THE WEST FACE OF THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

...CA/SRN NV/AZ/NM..SW UT...
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN FLARE BACK UP AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THAT PWS OVER 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE..BUT STILL COULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLD HEAVIER CNVTV RAINS.

BANN

$$





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