Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 150558
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE ELM 20 ESE SYR 30 W SLK CMLA 15 ENE CYSC 20 E BML
20 NE 1P1 15 NNW BAF BDR ISP 20 SSE JFK LOM THV 20 SW SEG
25 SSE ELM.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
NPA 10 SSE CEW 25 W MAI 20 ENE BGE 20 ENE MGR VLD 20 WNW 40J
20 E AAF 50 SW PAM 15 E KVOA KVKY 25 N KVKY NPA.


...INVOF FL PNHNDL...

A SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WAS ISSUED INVOF THE FL PNHNDL TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HVY CNVCTV RAINS THERE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONTD
TRAINING OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  PLEASE SEE LATEST
PRECIPITATION MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22...FFGMPD...FOR LATEST
DETAILS IN THIS REGARD.

...NORTHEAST...

LITTLE CHANGE FM PREVIOUS THINKING HERE WITH MODELS CONTG TO
ADVERTISE A LONG DURATION HVY RNFL EVENT FOR THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW OVR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES.
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASOCTD WITH THE APCH OF THE
AMPLIFYING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROF..AS WELL AS AN IMPRESSIVE MSTR
FLUX INTO THE AREA PER MODEL PW/LLVL WIND FCSTS SUGGESTIVE OF
BRIEF PDS OF HVY RNFL EMBEDDED IN WHAT GNLY WILL BE A LGT TO MDT
PCPN RNFL PATTERN.  STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS WITH TIME ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LEND A HAND TO THE LIFTING PROCESSES AS MSTR IS
TAPPED IN THE STRONG N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WORKING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.  EXPECT SOME 1 TO 1.5 INCH AMTS IN 3 TO 6
HOURS WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH STORM TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE.

KORTY
$$




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