Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 110119
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
918 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

...VALID 03Z THU SEP 11 2014 - 00Z FRI SEP 12 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E ILN 35 ESE LUK 25 SE FTK 35 SE PAH 10 S NQA 20 NE MWT
40 NW DEQ 20 W MLC 15 SSE TQH 35 SE TBN 15 ENE BLV 20 SW PRG
25 WSW AOH 10 W MNN 15 N OSU 25 E ILN.


THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXPECTED
FLOW PATTERN AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION WITHIN THIS REGION.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE PERSISTS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS) IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES -- 2-3 SIGMAS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR SEPTEMBER 11TH.
THE COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE LIFT
ENHANCED BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE, WEAKLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THE LEADING 500 HPA
VORTICITY AXIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT.  A PAIR OF THUNDERSTORM BANDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION,
AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY SHOULD MERGE BEFORE PROGRESSING
ALONG LATER TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
PERHAPS 06Z PER RECENT RAP RUNS, WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
IS PRESENT, AND FARTHER DOWN THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK WHERE THE BOUNDARY`S MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AND CAPE/INSTABILITY VALUES ARE HIGHER AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE >1000 J/KG CAPE IN
THIS MORE SOUTHERN REGION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.  AN AXIS
OF 1-2" AREAL AVERAGE RAINS ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4"
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN.  PARED BACK SOME OF THE AREA FROM
EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND NORTHERN OH DUE TO CONVECTIVE
MOVEMENT OUT OF THE REGION AND INCLUDED MORE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
AR/SOUTHEAST MO PER COORDINATION WITH OUR METWATCH DESK.  SEE MPD
#363 FOR MORE INFORMATION/THOUGHTS CONCERNING THIS REGION THROUGH
0452Z.

ROTH
$$




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