Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260009
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
808 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...VALID 01Z THU MAY 26 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 26 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW SKF 10 WSW BKS 35 W EBG 55 NNE MMAN 35 ESE 6R6 20 NNE E29
20 NW SKF.


...RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...

WITHIN A REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT LIFT PROVIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA WITHIN
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS AND LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES. COVERAGE
OF CELLS PRODUCING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE SPARSE...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONTINUITY. MULTIPLE HIGH RES RUNS INDICATE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
TO THE TX SIDE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW
MOISTURE ADVECTING UP THE RIO GRANDE AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...SETTING UP GROWING ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AND
BEYOND.

PETERSEN
$$





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