Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 211408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...VALID 15Z THU MAY 21 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 22 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 NW MMMV 115 SSW 6R6 60 WSW 6R6 40 S FST 55 NNE 6R6
20 WNW E29 15 SW ECU 15 SW HDO 25 SE SSF 40 NNW VCT 20 N VCT VCT
10 WNW 2R8 25 SSE BKS 15 WNW MFE 50 ENE MMMY 50 NW MMAN
70 NW MMMV.


...SOUTH TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

PROGRESSIVE MCS EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
POTENTIAL TO MERGE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
COAST.  ALSO...A FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION.  THE
RESULT IS MULTIPLE BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT 700 MB SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
00Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AHEAD
OF THIS NEXT WAVE...OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL FIRE
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IN
AREA WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG).

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...COINCIDING WITH SE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INCREASING TO 25-30+
KTS ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES AND MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.
THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES...SO
ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.

PETERSEN/HURLEY
$$




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