Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 251419
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT JUL 25 2015 - 12Z SUN JUL 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MADE ONLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EARLIER EXCESSIVE
OUTLOOK..WITH CONTINUED THREATS OF FLOODING CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MID MS/MO VALLEY AND THE FL PENINSULA.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S APF 50 W APF 50 SSW SRQ 40 W SPG 30 WNW PIE 15 SSW BKV
15 SSE BOW 45 NE RSW 45 ENE APF 45 ESE APF 45 W TMB 50 SSE APF
40 SSE APF 30 S APF.

...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS BEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FROM WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AN AXIS OF
2.25"+ PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS---FOCUSING ON SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM
TAMPA SOUTHWARD.  THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A MAX AXIS OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS PERIOD---BUT MORE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO
QPF AMOUNTS INLAND ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA---INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES---ESPECIALLY OVER URBANIZED AREAS---WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW SZL 20 N LWC 25 S FNB FNB 10 SSW AFK 10 W MLE 15 WSW HNR
15 ENE CSQ 20 SSW CNC 30 NNW IRK 30 W EOK 10 NNW UIN 20 SSW IJX
20 NNE ALN 20 NNE SAR MDH 15 NNW CGI 30 SW FAM 10 N TBN
20 WSW SZL.

...LOWER MO VALLEY...

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
DETAILS OF THE MAX QPF AXIS AS THERE IS A WIDESPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  THE FARTHER SOUTHERN QPF AXES OF THE GFS AND SEVERAL
OF THE HI RES MODELS WERE FAVORED.   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVES---ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE---ESPECIALLY IF THIS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES OVER AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ORAVEC
$$





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