Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 111845
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...VALID 18Z THU SEP 11 2014 - 00Z SAT SEP 13 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW GYI 45 NNE PRX MWT 15 SW LIT 20 ESE LIT 10 S SGT
20 SSE SGT 30 E PBF 25 NNE LLQ 10 WNW LLQ 10 NNW ELD 35 SSW TXK
10 W 3T1 DAL 20 SW GYI.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TX INTO EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BIT MORE
ENHANCED CONVECTION/RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE
BACK IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OK..NORTHEASTERN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN
AR..WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AND A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST INTO LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.  BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON..THE FRONT SHOULD GET A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTHWARD.  FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING HOURS..SOME ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SSE ALM 45 E ALM 30 NNE ROW 25 SSE CVN 20 SE PVW 50 N SNK
25 N SWW 20 SSE SWW 20 NNW SJT 40 WSW SJT 35 E FST 30 NNW E38
50 S GDP 45 WSW GDP 50 ENE ELP 50 SSE ALM.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD THRU THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM A COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND FROM STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW..LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FROM EASTERN CO OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER..AN EVEN
BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS..WHERE A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX/SOUTHEASTERN NM VICINITY OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THIS SAME AREA SHOULD SUPPORT THESE
ENHANCED RAINS/EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  GIVEN THIS AND THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS..AT LEAST SOME
1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS ARE EXPECTED..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THE GFS QPF LOOKED A BIT TOO LIGHT HERE..AND
ENDED UP STAYING CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER QPFS OF THE HIRES
MODELS AND THE ECMWF/UKMET QPFS.

TERRY
$$





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