Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 250129
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...VALID 03Z MON AUG 25 2014 - 00Z TUE AUG 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...EASTERN MONTANA...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
NORTHERN MT...WITH ENOUGH FRONTOGENESIS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
AROUND THE VORT CENTER FOR SOME OF THE PCPN TO BE BANDED IN
NATURE.  WHILE INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...FFG IN THE AREA REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL LOW SUGGESTING
THAT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED PROBLEMS DUE TO RUN OFF OR PONDING ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MT.  CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE ENTIRE AREA OF RAIN
SHIFTS INTO CANADA.

...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.  STORMS WERE MOST
NUMEROUS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND TO
THE NORTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ANGLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO WI/IL.  WITH THE FORMATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTS...EXPECT
TO SEE GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND MORE ROBUST RAINFALL RATES.  THE
H85 FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO TAP AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES.  INSTABILITY
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED PROBLEMS FROM MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


BANN

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