Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 192057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...VALID 21Z THU MAY 19 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 20 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE BQK NRB 20 SSW SGJ 20 NNE TLH 30 N DHN 20 WSW 3J7
20 NE JYL 20 ESE SVN 25 ENE BQK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNE KMIS 30 SE KDLP 30 S P92 10 NE KCMB ARA 15 NW HSA
20 ESE PQL 35 SSE PQL 25 NNE KMIS.


CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A PROGRESSIVE MCS IS MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AFTER CONSULTING WITH OUR METWATCH/SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE
FORECASTER, CONCUR THAT THE GUIDANCE HANDLING THE LINE`S
PROGRESSION THE BEST IS THE 12Z ARW, THOUGH EVEN IT MIGHT BE TOO
SLOW.  MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (MESOSCALE OR OTHERWISE)
APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH AS WELL, SO SHAVED OFF SOME OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS LA/MS.  LOWERED THE THREAT
CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERNMOST TX (A SEE TEXT) AS CONVECTION HAS NOT
COMPLETELY CLEARED THE BRO COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE COVERAGE
APPEARS LESS THAN EXPECTED.  LEFT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA AND
SOUTHERNMOST MS AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE`S
STILL A CHANCE THAT CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS
OCCURRING.


SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS REVEALED ITSELF IN RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHEAST
FL.  VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 20 KTS OF WEST-SOUTHWEST INFLOW OFF AN
INSTABILITY POOL OF 1500-2500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHICH
IS FEEDING THE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN GA.  THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 04Z PER THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SC APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED, SO REMOVED THE REGION
FROM THE SEE TEXT.

ROTH
$$





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