Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 081302
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

...VALID 15Z TUE JUL 08 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 09 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
UPPER HIGH CENTER--MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WITH STANDARD
DEVIATIONS OF 2-3+ ABOVE THE MEAN WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CA.  THESE HIGH PW
VALUES AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER SHEAR AXIS WITH EMBEDDED VORTS
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION.  DUE TO HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF
WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL OCCUR...AS THE MODELS
SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH.

PETERSEN
$$





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