Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190257
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1056 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 00Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SE SAD 65 NE SAD 60 SSE GNT CQC 40 NE TCC 40 SSE AMA
35 N SNK 25 E ABI SEP 15 WSW CRS 25 WSW PSN 10 SSE JAS
15 NNW KCMB 10 N KVBS 25 NW KGVX 30 E KRP 10 SE LRD 20 ESE 6R6
45 SSE E38 50 SSW MRF 90 SSE MMCS 35 SW MMCS 90 ESE DUG
50 SE DUG 40 NE DUG 40 SE SAD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 W CVS 35 SSE CVN 55 NW BPG 25 SSE BPG 15 W 6R9 20 N RND
20 NW HDO 35 SW E29 20 SE FST 30 NE E38 15 N MRF 45 WNW MRF
70 SSW GDP 15 SE MMCS 30 W MMCS 15 WSW LRU 15 E TCS 40 NE TCS
35 WNW 4CR 55 W CVS.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S GDP 45 W GDP 30 SSE ALM 15 E SRR 50 ENE ROW 15 N HOB
15 N INK 40 SE GDP 35 S GDP.


...NM EWD INTO MUCH OF WRN TX AND THE CNTL/UPR TX COAST/SW LA...

SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK TO SHIFT GREATEST EXCESSIVE
THREAT OVERNIGHT TOWARD SE NM/W TX AREA INTO PARTS OF CNTL TX.
REMAINS OF ODILE CAN STILL BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY WITH RATHER
BROAD CIRC OVER SE AZ INTO PARTS OF SW NM GRADUALLY PUSHING EWD.
THE REMAINS ARE FCST TO INTERACT WITH STALLED E/W FRONTAL BNDRY
ACRS W TX INTO CNTL TX OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH MDT TO WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT.  AS CIRC
TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL ESELY TO SELY FLOW IS FCST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KTS OVER PARTS OF WRN TX SE NM.   THIS SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE LIFT INTO THE REGION WITH LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTING ORGANIZED SLOW OR PSBLY ANCHORED
STORMS FORMING OVER SE NM/W TX AFTER 03Z.   POTNL FOR ORGANIZED
MCS IS PSBL OVER THIS AREA WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGESTING A
SLOW ESE MOVEMENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS OR MORE.   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK FRONTAL
BNDRY WITH POTNL FOR REPEAT CELLS LEADING TO ENHANCED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MRNG.


SULLIVAN
$$




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