Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 260818
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE APR 26 2016 - 12Z WED APR 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW PPF 20 SSW MHK 20 SW BIE AFK 30 SSW LWD CPS 25 WSW FAM
15 ESE FLP 30 WSW ELD 10 WNW LFK GTU 20 E 7F9 20 NW GLE
20 WSW RVS 10 NNW PPF.


ERN TX NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP THIS AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT FROM ERN TX NWD INTO PARS OF ERN KS..SE NEB AND MO..AND
STG AND INCREASINGLY NEG TILTED UPR TROF LIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
CNTL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTL PLAINS THIS PD.  THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKING EWD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH DEEPENING
MSTR RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF AND STG DAYTIME INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN A RAPID BREAKOUT OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF DVLPG
SFC LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY EWD
THRU THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS INTO AXIS OF INCREASING PWS OVER ERN TX
NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT LIKELY
RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED SQLN/MCS.  MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MSTR AXIS/JET COULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS ERN TX INTO ERN
OK/WRN AR BEFORE MAIN VORT LOBE PIVOTS NEWD TUES EVENING ALLOWING
INCREASING WLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORT LOBE AXIS TO BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
INTENSE RAINS ALONG WITH TRAINING CELLS PARTICULARLY THRU NE TX/SE
OK AND WRN AR GIVEN EXPECTED STG INSTABILITIES AND PD OF
IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT....WITH A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS
RAINS LIKELY WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.    A
SECONDARY MAX IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ACRS ERN KS INTO MO NEAR
INTERSECTION OF E/W WARM FRONT AND APCHG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.  MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DVLPG
HERE TUE EVE THAT COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL.  MODELS ALSO SHOW STORMS INCREASING EARLY THIS MRNG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE EAST WEST FRONT IN ADVANCE OF MID/UPR LEVEL
IMPUSE PUSHING EWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS. THESE EARLY MORNING RAINS
IN THEMSELVES COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS EARLY
TUES BEFORE MAIN ACTIVITY DVLPS ACRS THE REGION TUES AFTN/EVENG.
HAVE MAINTAINED A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS
THIS REGION GIVEN LACK OF STG CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS FOR WHERE
POTNL FLASH FLOODING RAINS MAY DVLP..BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR PSBL UPGRADE IN LATER ISSUANCES.

...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY.....TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY..
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS IN DVLPG ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACRS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MRNG WITH MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK VORT..PSBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MOVING THROUGH
THRU THE FLAT RIDGE AND TRANSLATING EWD ALONG E/W FRONTAL BNDRY
SLIDING VERY SLOWLY SWD THRU THE LOWER OH TN VALLEYS TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL IS LOW HERE WITH TIMING OF
STORMS THAT MAY DVLP ALONG THE BNDRY TODAY BUT THERE IS MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DVLPG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PWS AND MODEST RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
SUPPORT...TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HERE.  WITH
MEAN FLOW PARALLELING SFC BNDRY..COULD SEE SOME TRAINING CELLS
WHERE SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DVLP AND AS A RESULT SOME
PSBL ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES MAY OCCUR ACRS THIS REGION.


SULLIVAN
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