Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 181455
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

...VALID 15Z WED MAY 18 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 19 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
05F 20 WSW AUS 45 NW VCT 15 E KRP 20 SSW BKS 60 WSW MMRX
20 NNE MMMY 55 ESE MMMV 50 NNE MMMV 70 WSW MMPG 55 SE E38
15 ENE E38 15 ESE PEQ 35 NNW MDD 50 NNE SNK 15 WNW 1F9 05F.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W TMB 30 W PBI 25 W FPR 10 WNW MLB 30 NE VRB 15 ENE SUA
25 ESE MIA 25 SSE HST 35 SW HST 25 W TMB.



...WEST TEXAS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS WEST TX.

THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A TROF AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW OVER WEST TX AS A 70 TO 80 KT SPEED MAX
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OLD MEXICO RESULTS IN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

RADAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE LATEST
HI RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN INTO THE REGION BY
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KTS.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAFL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
SOUTH FL GIVEN LOCALIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THERE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY TODAY PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR MORE TODAY.  THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH FL SHOW
PRECIPITABLE RANGING FROM 2 INCHES AT MFL TO 2.25 INCHES AT
EYW...WITH VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER UP THE FL PENINSULA.  THE
OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE ARW DEVELOPED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER INDIAN RIVER AND ST LUCIE
COUNTIES...WHICH HAD THE HEAVIEST RAFL OVERNIGHT.  THE HRRR TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE FROM 12Z 40 KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOWED
SOME SPOTS PEAKING AROUND 30 PCT OF AN ADDITION 3 INCH RAFL IN 3
HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH ALONG THE
PENINSULA TO THE MIAMI DADE AREA. GIVEN THE URBANIZATION OF THE
AREA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FELT A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WAS WARRANTED.

BANN





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