Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 160144
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
943 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT AUG 16 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW MBG 20 S HEI 25 ENE BHK 20 SE SDY KS25 25 W N60
30 ENE K7L2 20 SSW ABR 45 WNW HON 45 SSW MBG.

AGAIN TIGHTENED UP THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM PARTS OF WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHERN SD..UNDER A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER PWS..AT OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY DIFLUENT THIS REGION
WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WA/OR AND THE RIDGE AXIS
OFF TO THE
EAST..WHICH WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE LIFT..AND WITH THE SMALL AND
WEAKENING H5 CIRCULATION VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALSO
AIDING IN LIFT.  SOME ISOLATED 1+ INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE..WITH SOME ISOLATED 1-2 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
OXV 15 NNE OTM MPZ BRL 20 SSW MQB 20 WNW IJX 15 SSE PPQ
30 NW SUS 30 ENE JEF 10 ESE DMO 15 S LXT 10 NW IXD 15 N TOP
30 WSW FNB 10 NW AFK 20 ESE AIO OXV.

TRIMMED A BIT THE SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED FROM PARTS
OF SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS.  VERY HIGH
PWS IN PLACE..2.17 INCHES AT TOP..AND A K INDEX OF 39..ATTEST TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  EXPECT THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY..TRIGGERING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING VICINITY OF THE FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  40+
KTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY..AND COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY BACKBUILDING.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH THRU THIS REGION..THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO AND SOME LOCAL 3-4+ INCH
AMOUNTS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS.

TERRY
$$




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