Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 130034
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...VALID 01Z FRI JAN 13 2017 - 12Z FRI JAN 13 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CRQ 15 SW OKB OKB NFG 15 NE NFG 20 SE RIV 10 E RIV
10 ENE RIV 20 ENE RIV 20 WNW PSP 15 WNW PSP 10 SW PSP 25 SW TRM
30 ENE RNM 15 NNE CZZ 15 SW CZZ 15 SSE MMTJ 30 SSW NRS.


01 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO TRIM MUCH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA OVER
CA DOWN TO JUST SRN CA BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/HRRR. ALSO
OPTED FOR THE SAME REASON TO DISCONTINUE THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
MARGINAL THREAT AREA FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS HEAVIER RAINS
HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS THREAT AREA.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW EVOLVES OVER CENTRAL CA INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN SIERRA-NEVADA AND ALSO DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES. THE AXIS OF MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
ESPECIALLY THE SAN BERNADINO AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE
WILL BE LOCALIZED CONCERN OVER THE BURN SCAR AREAS. EXPECT AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HERE AND ALSO BACK UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SIERRA-NEVADA. THESE RAINS WILL
PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF CONCERNS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR THE BURN SCAR AREAS.

SCHICHTEL/ORAVEC




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