Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240823
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI JUL 24 2015 - 12Z SAT JUL 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW DAB 10 WSW ISM 25 E SRQ 15 SSE SRQ 40 WSW SRQ 105 WSW PIE
130 W PIE 80 S AAF 50 ESE AAF 15 NNE 40J AYS 20 WNW LHW
20 ESE JYL 35 N NBC 10 NE CHS 35 SE HXD 30 NE SGJ 30 NW DAB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S OJC TOP 20 E MHK 25 SE CNK 25 WNW CNK 25 WSW HJH 25 NW HJH
15 SE JYR 15 NNE LNK 10 NNE AIO 10 SSW FOD 20 W MCW AUM
25 WSW DEH IIB 10 SW IOW 30 SW EOK 50 SW UIN JEF 35 W AIZ
20 S OJC.


FAR SOUTHEAST NE---FAR NORTHEAST KS---NORTHWEST MO INTO CENTRAL IA

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES---ENHANCING
UVVS IN AN AXIS OF HI CAPE VALUES EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
FRONT AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO.  THE HI RES
RUNS FROM 0000 UTC ARE EMPHASIZING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN A
NORTH SOUTH AXIS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN
TO CENTRAL MO---WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS MORE EMPHATIC
ABOUT CONVECTION IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH DETAILS GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BOTH THE WEST TO EAST
AXIS AND NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS---THERE MAY BE ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
WHERE CONVECTION DOES BECOME ORGANIZED.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH FL INTO COASTAL GA AND COASTAL SC

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS---WITH VALUES 2+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FROM THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC/GA INTO NORTHERN FL.  THERE IS A WELL DEFINED HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE--ESPECIALLY THE HI RES RUNS---IN
THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS.  THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NW FLORIDA WHERE MOIST WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL FOCUS FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD.   FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST---HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO FOCUS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS PERIOD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GA/SC COASTS AHEAD OF THE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT HERE IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL GA AND SC.  WHILE FFG VALUES
ARE HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS---INTENSE RAINFALL RATES IN THE ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC
$$





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