Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 100106
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

...VALID 03Z THU JUL 10 2014 - 00Z FRI JUL 11 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



03Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO OUTLOOK OR REASONING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/GT BASIN
AREA.   SULLIVAN

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE THIS PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER HIGH. PWS IN THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE OVER 150 PCT OF NORMAL
IN SOME SPOTS.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE AREAS.
HOWEVER---THE RECENT PATTERN OF ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
HIGH AT 3-4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AND GLOBAL MODEL HIGH RES WRF
ARW/NMM QPF IS WELL BELOW THESE NUMBERS.

PETERSEN
$$




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