Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 200025
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT WED APR 19 2017

...VALID 01Z THU APR 20 2017 - 12Z THU APR 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S BJJ 10 W MFD 30 ENE FDY 20 E TDZ 15 ESE CXPT 30 NNE CGF
10 SSE ERI 30 SSW JHW 25 NW DUJ 15 WSW IDI 25 SW LBE 20 SSE AFJ
10 SE PHD 25 S BJJ.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE RZN 15 NNE PBH 15 E IMT 25 W CVX 10 S CAD 30 ESE SBM ETB
20 NNW MXO 30 ESE CAV 15 SSE AXA 10 WSW FRM MGG PNM 15 ESE RZN.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
ICT 30 SW HUT 20 NE PTT 20 W GBD 25 SSW HYS 25 ESE RSL
15 WNW SLN 25 W MHK 25 N TOP 20 NNE LWC 15 SSE UKL 40 E AAO ICT.


01Z UPDATE...

SEE MPD #126 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TIL
AROUND 06Z.

ADDED MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WHERE CONCERN IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOVING
STORMS/TRAINING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM SE NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN KS AS OF 00Z.  THE MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO BOW OUT QUICKER WED EVENING INTO NE KS WHICH
MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF E/W ALIGNMENT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE.  THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
WITH MOST SUGGESTING ISOLD RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OR SO
IN AN HOUR OR TWO..THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
AMOUNTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 3 INCHES.  AGAIN..WITH FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EXPECTED ANY RUNOFF ISSUES TO BE FAIRLY
ISOLD.  SULLIVAN    PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...



THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS IN
PLACE FROM THE MID/NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES AND H85 DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 11 DEGREES
C.  VEERING WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE AREA BUT SPEEDS WERE FAIRLY
STRONG AS WERE THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR VALUES SO MOST OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE FROM MN/IA INTO LOWER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED MAY RESULT GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD RESULT IN A
LONGER DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THIS
AREA WAS IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...SO
SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THAT AS WELL.

TO THE EAST...MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
INTO WESTERN PA.  CONCERN IS FOR A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
WESTERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS-  IN AREA OF TRAINING...THERE MAY BE RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED REGIONS.

BANN

$$





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