Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 150608
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI AUG 15 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S MBG 25 WNW 9V9 40 S PHP 25 SE RAP 45 ENE IKA 40 SW 2WX
30 N 2WX 50 E HEI 25 S MBG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE BNW 15 NE OTM 30 ENE IRK 40 NW COU 10 N LWC 35 ENE CNK
25 NNE AUH 25 N OFK 10 SE LRJ 10 SSE BNW.


...NRN/CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

ONE QPF MAXIMA IN SD IS FOCUSED NEAR A 700 MB CYCLONIC VORTICITY
LOBE/CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN ASSOCIATED 700 MB CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CONTINUED SINCE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THIS AREA.  FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSING NEBRASKA TOWARDS IOWA AND MO
HAS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED 700 MB LOW....AND
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE.  THESE 2 WAVES INTERCEPT THE
HIGHER MOISTURE-CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE.  THE 0Z GFS STREAKS THE
RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH ITS LOWER AMPLITUDE 700 MB RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NE/IA WAVE.  CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE GFS
SOLUTION WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM/UKMET/12Z ECMWF OF A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WHICH RESULTS IN
SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOLLOWING SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE MAXIMA.  MANUAL
PROGS BLENDED THIS MAJORITY CLUSTER OF FCSTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY YESTERDAYS GEFS RE FCST AND THE 00Z WRF ARW AND NMM
RUNS...WHICH PLACED THE MAXIMA IN THE COUNTIES STRADDLING THE
MO/IA BORDER.
IN SPITE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT RISK IS SHOWN.

PETERSEN
$$




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