Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 170129
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...VALID 03Z SUN AUG 17 2014 - 00Z MON AUG 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW 8D3 35 NNW ABR 35 WSW JMS 25 NNE JMS 25 NNE JKJ
15 SE SAZ 10 W GHW 15 SSW 8D3.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE DNV 15 NW BMG 15 N HNB 10 SE EHR 20 ESE PAH 30 SSE POF
15 E FLP 15 WSW GMJ 50 SSE OJC 35 SSE IRK 25 SSW MQB 20 S PIA
15 ESE BMI 20 SE DNV.


NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SLIGHT RISK.
NEEDED TO SHIFT THE SLIGHT RISK IN NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD AND
ENCROACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE SLIGHT RISK WAS PRETTY WELL SET BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EAST AND THE COOL DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.  STILL THINK THAT THE PARENT WAVE WILL SHEAR APART AS SHOWN
BY THE 12Z AND 18Z MODEL SUITES...BUT THE HIGH RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR STILL KEEP SOME HEAVY RAINS FALLING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SOME HIGHER PWS WILL STILL PERSIST IN ITS
PATH BUT THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  SOME ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

THE WELL DEFINED AND SLOW MOVING MCV NOW OVER NORTHEAST MO IS
HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS THIS PERIOD..WITH ALL TAKING IT
INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.  VERY
HIGH PWS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF..AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES..AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF ADDITIONAL VERY
HIGH MOISTURE INTO IT..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND
LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PERIOD.  KEPT ONE
RELATIVE RAINFALL MAXIMUM NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER ITSELF FROM
NEAR STL EASTWARD/EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IL..WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM
IN THE INFLOW AXIS OF HIGHER PWS UP THE LOWER/MID OH VALLEY BASIN.
 SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR SO AND SOME 2-3+
INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
WITHIN THE THREAT AREA.

BANN


$$




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