Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 261804
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...VALID 18Z SAT JUL 26 2014 - 00Z MON JUL 28 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
DNV 20 NNW SGH ZZV 15 ENE CKB 15 S EKN 25 NNE LWB 20 WNW LWB
35 SE HTS 40 NNE LOU 20 SSE HUF DNV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W SPD 35 WSW CAO 20 E LVS 30 S SKX 10 WNW SKX 30 SE ALS
30 NW VTP 25 ESE MYP 35 ESE CCU 25 SW APA 10 SW AFF PUB
20 ESE PUB LHX 15 W SPD.




...OH VALLEY/GT LAKES...

A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL DIG SEWD THIS PD FROM THE UPR
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTL GT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE SUN.
THE ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING
THREAT OF PCPN AHEAD OF IT WITH TWO MAIN COMPONENTS.  THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER TO EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL TEND TO
OCCUR IN THE INCREASING WAA PATRN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN ADVANCE OF
FLAT WAVE RIPPING ALONG E/W FRONT ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
OH VALLEY/CNTL APLCNS.  CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...PSBL
MCS...ARE LIKELY FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY EWD WITH MOIST WLY NEAR
SFC-85H FLOW LIKELY ENHANCING UPSLOPE AMOUNTS THRU PARTS OF WV/WRN
VA THRU SUN MRNG.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH PWS AOA 2.0 INCHES
OVERNIGHT...SOME INTENSE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 PLUS
INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO ARE EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF
ISSUES ESPECIALLY FROM ECNTL INDIANA EWD INTO WV.  FARTHER N...UPR
DYNAMICS WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE BUT A BIT MORE REMOVED FROM THE
DEEPER MSTR. POTNL FOR SHORT TERM, MORE ISOLD HEAVIER CNVTV RAINS
WILL BE PSBL HERE FROM PARTS OF THE GT LAKES EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND..AND PSBL SLOWER MOVING AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH EMBDD
CONVECTION NEAR DVLPG COMMA HEAD OVER LOWER MI/WI WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S TO COLORADO/NE NM...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR TROF THRU THE GREAT LAKES...THE
PRONOUNCED UPR RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS PD. LINGERING MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLD TO
SCTD CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION..MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK S/WV ENERGY
TRACKING WNWWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR RIDGE ACRS NRN
MEX THAT MAY TEND TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY OVER SE AZ/SW NM SUN AFTN
LEADING TO INCREASED THREAT OF ISOLD HEAVIER RAINS..OTHERWISE
FORCING REMAINS ILL DEFINED.  ACRS CO...THERE IS GENL MODEL
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ENHANCED SE/E UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTL/SRN CO MTNS ON SUN WITH
PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER SE CO SUN AFTN.  TSTM
ACTIVITY COULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE DURING PEAK HEATING UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE NEAR NE SIDE OF UPR HIGH OVER PARTS OF SE
CO/NE NM...WHILE SLOWLY PROPAGATING SEWD INTO THE LL JET/DEEPER
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SOME ELEVATED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS
CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.

SULLIVAN

$$




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