Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 100640
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

...VALID 06Z WED SEP 10 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 11 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW MKG RQB 25 NNE MOP 25 N MBS 15 NNE HYX 20 ENE FNT ONZ
30 NW MFD MNN 20 WNW CVG 40 NE HNB EVV 20 SSE HSB 15 NNE CIR
15 SSW CGI 30 WNW CGI FAM 25 SW CPS 15 NW SUS 35 ENE COU
15 N SZL 25 ESE MHK 15 ENE FNB 10 ESE CSQ 15 NNW OXV VTI
15 ENE MRJ MSN 10 NNW MWC 20 NNW MKG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 N ISQ 25 SE ESC MDZ 10 NW OEO 10 WSW CDD 40 NNW IWD
15 NW IWD 20 NNE CMX P59 45 N ISQ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE MIE BMG LWV 20 SSE DEC 15 W IJX 30 ESE IRK 20 ENE CDJ
25 SSE LWD 20 WSW OTM 10 ENE OTM 10 SW MLI 20 SE SQI 10 NE VYS
15 W C09 15 SSE JOT VPZ GSH 10 SSW OEB 10 ENE FWA 30 SSE FWA
10 SE MIE.



HAVE TWO MAIN AREAS OF POTNL EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PD....A SLIGHT
TO MDT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY..AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI.
   DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS THE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NEWD THRU THE GT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC PROV BY THUR MORNING
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THRU THE PD.  MODELS GENLY SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AND TRAILING RATHER STG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS RATHER STG
HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE NRN HI PLAINS.  GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PCPN PATRN TUES NIGHT WITH RATHER LARGE
E/W CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHING ACRS THE MO VALLEY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST INTERCEPTING A MAJORITY OF THE STG INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
DVLPG SFC WAVE.  HAVE PUT GREATER EMPHASIS ON HI RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS FOR THE DAY 1 PD WITH ANTICIPATION THAT THE WARM
FRONT OR AT LEAST THE HIER CAPE AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACRS
THE MIDWEST AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PD WITH STG COLD POOL AND
VEERING OF 85H FLOW THRU THE MRNG HRS.  THRU EARLY MRNG..EXPECT
GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN AN HOUR
OR TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD FROM SRN/ERN IA/NRN MO INTO IL.   AS
LOW LIFTS NEWD THRU THE GT LAKES WED EVENING..JET STREAK LIFTING
NEWD FROM THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE RT ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE PWS OF
2 TO 2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY...POTNL WILL EXIST FROM SOME STG
ORGANIZED TSTM LINES WITH HEAVY RAINS TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT WED
AFTN AND NIGHT SWD ACRS IN/OH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG WITH
POTNL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

ACRS THE WRN GT LAKES...EXPECT SLOWER MOVING DEFORMATION BAND TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS DVLPG
LOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COLD FRONT STATIONARY BNDRY NE
OF THE LOW.  MODELS SHOW WEAK JET COUPLET DVLP THRU THE MRNG HOURS
ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
STG ASCENT WHICH COUPLED WITH MODEST E/SE WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD SUPPORT WILL FAVOR AN AXIS OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS.  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCH IN SEVERAL HRS
WILL BE PSBL IN THE SOME OF THE SLOWER MORE INTENSE BANDS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

SULLIVAN

$$





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