Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 120616
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
115 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI DEC 12 2014 - 12Z SAT DEC 13 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N BLU 35 SW TVL 35 NE MAE 20 NE PTV 30 NE BFL 10 NE BFL
10 SW HJO 15 SSW NLC 15 ENE PRB 45 ENE SBP 15 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL
20 WSW MHV WJF 30 ESE PMD 30 NE RIV 20 ENE RNM 10 SE MMTJ
10 W NZY 15 NNE AVX 40 SSW SBA 35 SSW 87Q 20 SSW MRY LVK
10 NE OVE 10 N BLU.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
XVW 10 W SBP 10 ENE SBP 35 ENE SMX 15 NNW SDB 15 N 3A6
15 SE PMD 25 NE RAL 10 NNE RIV SNA 10 W SMO 20 SSW SBA XVW.


CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

THE IMPRESSIVE AND EXTENDED PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON
THURS IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE DOWN THE COAST. THE HEAVY RAINS
IMPACTING CENTRAL CA AND ARRIVING INTO THE MONTERREY PENINSULA
WILL REACH SRN CA BY FRIDAY MORNING... AS A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PLOWS INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE STATE AND CAPITALIZES ON
IDEAL UPPER JET COUPLING. THE GLOBAL MODEL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
STILL SUGGEST PWS AOA 2.5 TO 3 TIMES ABOVE AVG... SO DESPITE THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS LIKELY BUT NOT QUITE THE SCALE OBSERVED EARLIER OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGES OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES WITH MUDSLIDE AND DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CEASE OR COME TO AN END BY 00Z/13.

MUSHER
$$




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