Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 231406
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...VALID 15Z THU JUL 23 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S CKN DTL 20 E FFM 20 SE FFM 15 NNE ETH 25 SE KGWR
15 WNW K2D5 25 WSW JMS 30 WSW K46D 20 ENE N60 10 WSW K08D
30 NNE KD60 30 W CWEI CYBR 15 WSW CWPG 20 NNW HCO 30 SSE HCO
30 S CKN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE SUT 15 S SUT 15 SE MYR 25 WSW MYR 20 S FLO 10 NNE FLO
FBG LHZ RZZ 20 ENE ASJ 10 SSW ECG 35 SSE EDE 25 NNE MRH 20 S MRH
20 ESE SUT.


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS AND SOME VERY RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER THINKING
REGARDING THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


...NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN...

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE IN THE 0000-1200 UTC FRIDAY
TIME FRAME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF ND AND MN. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH A SLIGHT RISK
DEPICTED FROM NORTHEAST TO EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MN
WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.  SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.


...EASTERN NC INTO NORTHEAST SC...

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A STRONG
MODEL SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAX MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN NC INTO NORTHEAST SC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS---INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THAT
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2"+ POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC--WITH A SLIGHT
RISK DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$




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