Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180147
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
947 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...VALID 03Z MON AUG 18 2014 - 00Z TUE AUG 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW LEX 40 N JKL 30 SW CRW 15 W BKW 10 NW BLF 10 WNW MKJ
20 ESE TRI 40 ENE CHA 10 SSE 3A1 25 ENE CBM 40 WNW GTR
25 NNW GWO 40 SW UTA 40 WNW M97 15 SE JBR 10 S DYR 15 SSE CKV
GLW 15 SW LEX.


AFTER LOOKING AT RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z RAOBS..SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THINKING AND MADE
ONLY VERY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.  A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
AIRMASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES AROUND 2.00 INCHES...IS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN OH VALLEY.  A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND A STILL WELL
DEFINED MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABALE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO POSSIBILY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THE WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS WERE A BIT
EAST/FAST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE ENSEMBLES.
THIS WAS CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MUCAPES.  MAXIMUM
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2.5 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER AS NOTED BY THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

TERRY
$$





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