Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 161854
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...VALID 18Z THU OCT 16 2014 - 00Z SAT OCT 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW CWSS 40 SE BHB 65 SE RKD 70 SSE RKD 55 NE PVC 25 NE PVC
10 E PVC 10 SE PVC HYA 10 SE MVY 25 SSW MVY 30 ESE BID
20 ENE BID PVD FIT LCI 15 E BML 45 WNW GNR 40 NE CWHV 30 SE CWST
40 ESE CWST 20 WSW FVE PQI 15 SSE HUL 25 WSW CWSS.

THE BAND OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC CLOSED H5
LOW..WITH A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF PWS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES LIFTING
THRU.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME..LEADING TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS THRU NEW ENGLAND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO EVEN
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINS..MAINLY INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS AND
MOSTLY FROM EASTERN MA AND VT INTO MAINE.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF RAINFALL BANDS IN A GENERAL SOUTH
TO NORTH DIRECTION..SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE THIS TRAINING OCCURS.  RATHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THRU
MUCH OF THE THREAT AREA..BUT WITH ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE
IN THE BETTER CELL TRAINING.

TERRY
$$




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