Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260828
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

...VALID 12Z MON JUN 26 2017 - 12Z TUE JUN 27 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 E SGJ 20 SSE DAB 45 WSW FPR 15 WNW TMB 55 SSE APF 15 NNW PGD
20 WSW VVG 30 SW CTY 10 SSW 40J 45 WNW VQQ 15 NW BQK 20 SE HXD.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ESE BRO 30 SSE NQI 20 ESE RND DWH 20 SSE ARA 25 SW KMDJ.




...FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

A COUPLE OF MARGINAL THREATS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ON MONDAY, AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS CONTAINING THE BULK OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
SOUTH, BASICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ACROSS FL TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. PERHAPS THE OPPORTUNE AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND SSW THROUGH THE
PENINSULA, AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT FROM GA INTO FL
AND A SHEAR AXIS/EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AND TOTALS OVER THE TWO STATES. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM, THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LA INTO
SERN TX AND ALLOW MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SERN TX. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ON
WHERE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MIGHT SET UP, AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE PANHANDLE PERHAPS APPROACHES THE TX HILL COUNTRY.

MUSHER

$$





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