Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 172317
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...VALID 00Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 00Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE INW 40 S GUP 30 N GNT 30 SE GNT 45 S ABQ 15 NNE 4MY
50 SE LVS 20 SSE AMA 60 SSW F05 20 WNW SJT 35 SE INK 35 WNW INK
10 NW GDP 15 SSW MMCS 90 WSW MMCS 75 S OLS 90 WSW OLS 30 S YUM
20 ENE IPL 25 SSE TRM 20 SW NJK CZZ 30 N RNM 35 SSW DAG
15 ENE DAG 45 SSW DRA 15 N DRA 45 NNE DRA 45 WSW SGU SGU
30 SE CDC 25 SW PGA 40 E GCN 35 NNW INW 30 ENE INW.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 W AIZ 15 WNW UNO 20 WNW SRC 15 WNW RUE 20 WNW SLG 15 NW PPF
40 S IXD 45 W AIZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW 3T5 30 SSW PSN 10 NNW JAS KVNP 15 SSW KVBS 20 NNE KBQX
15 ENE VCT 10 WNW 3T5.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 N TCS 50 NE TCS 45 WNW 4CR 20 S CQC 45 SW TCC 35 ENE CVN
40 E PVW 35 NW SNK 30 NW HOB 45 WNW GDP 40 W MMCS 80 ESE DUG
50 SSW DUG 45 SSW OLS 50 W OLS 35 NNW DMA 45 SSE SOW 50 E SJN
15 S GNT 50 SSE GNT 55 N TCS.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW SAD 70 NW TCS 25 E TCS 20 WNW 4CR 55 E 4CR 40 WSW ATS
30 S LRU 40 ESE DUG 30 SE OLS 15 NW OLS 35 WSW SAD.

ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS...

A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO DUE TO ANTICIPATED HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER A LONG DURATION ACCOMPANYING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WHERE HIGH
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP A REGION OF ALREADY REDUCED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WAS RECENTLY EXTENDED INTO WEST TEXAS TO CAPTURE THE
EVOLVING AND EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

EAST TEXAS...

DIURNAL INCREASES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
AND MOIST PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS SEA BREEZES AND ZONES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DEVELOP.
 GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WAS CONTINUED.

CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE RISK OF EXCEEDING FFG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS
IS TOO TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME
AND THUS WAS REMOVED ON THIS ISSUANCE.  ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...A LACK OF A WELL-ORGANIZED AND DEEP FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE BELOW THE THRESHOLD.

MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING
CHARACTERISTICS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD AND TOTAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY.

JAMES
$$




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