Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010103
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
903 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...VALID 03Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 00Z TUE SEP 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW EMP 30 NE EWK 20 NNW HUT 25 E GBD 25 ESE RSL 25 NNE SLN
35 N MHK 30 SSE BIE 25 WSW AFK OMA 15 NW CIN 15 WSW AXA
10 NW MIC DLH 15 S BFW 40 E BFW 15 WSW IWD 10 NE RCX 30 NE ONA
25 NNW OLZ 15 SSW ALO PEA 25 WSW IRK 30 NNW COU 10 W JEF
10 NNE AIZ AIZ 40 WSW AIZ 40 N SGF 60 NNE JLN 45 ENE CNU
25 SE UKL 10 S EMP 15 SW EMP.


UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY

TRIMMED WRN PORTION OF PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE STGEST AND
MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE PUSHED EWD OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA AND REASONING STILL REMAINS
VALID.  CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS
OF THE CNTL PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF INCREASING
PW VALUES---REACHING 1.5 TO 2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE QPF DETAILS OF THE HI
RES ARW WERE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THIS PERIOD-ESPECIALLY WITH THE
PORTION OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY REGION WHERE THE HI RES ARW IS
FASTER.  THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IN THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SHOULD BE BETTER IN THIS CASE WHERE THERE MAY BE A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW.   WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTAL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE
FROM SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+



ORAVEC/SULLIVAN


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