Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 170100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE OCT 17 2017 - 12Z TUE OCT 17 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE TTS ISM 15 NE VDF 20 SW VVG 15 E GNV 10 SSW VQQ 10 N JAX
30 NE NRB.


...SOUTHEAST COAST...

CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MARGINAL RISK AS OVERALL THINK THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE BEGUN TO
SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FL AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CELL
MERGERS...WITH A GOOD SIGNAL AMONGST 12Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS FOR LOCALIZED 1-3" RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS
IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES...SOME LOCALIZED
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS GIVEN THE WETTER
THAN NORMAL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WILL THUS CARRY A
MARGINAL RISK OVER A PORTION OF NORTHEAST FL.

CHENARD


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