Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 190733
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...VALID 12Z MON JUN 19 2017 - 12Z TUE JUN 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
100 SE WAL 9W7 10 WNW OCW 15 E MEB UDG 30 W CAE 10 SE IIY
15 ESE FFC 15 SSE CCO 15 WSW MGM 40 WSW MGM 55 ENE HBG
15 NNE BTR 35 NNE LFT ACP 40 NNE JAS TYR 20 W CRS 20 SE 7F9
10 NNW BWD 25 ESE ABI 10 SSW RPH 10 WSW DTO 15 SSE PRX 15 S TXK
20 SSE TXK 25 ENE GWO 25 WSW 1M4 35 NNE MDQ 25 SSW JKL 20 E HTS
20 E PKB 25 SW DUJ 15 NW ELM 10 SE SYR 20 NW MVL 20 ENE CWNH
10 NE CAFC 35 N PVC 25 N PVC 15 SE UUU 55 SSE BID.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E CYSC 55 W PQI 10 NNW CYSL 30 E PQI 15 SSE MLT 15 WNW BGR
SFM IJD 15 SE JFK 20 NNE MIV 15 NW GED 10 W SBY CPK JNX 20 W 45J
15 ESE UZA 10 E UZA 15 NNE HBI 15 NE DAN 25 S CHO 15 SSE CHO
10 NE OKV SEG 30 W MSV GFL 15 NW 1V4 25 E CYSC.



...NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDATLC AND SWWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TX...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION..

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE LIKELY THIS
PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NE/MID ATLC
BEFORE SLOWING SWWD ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUES MORNING.
MODELS SHOW SUPPORTING UPPER TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHARPENING A
BIT ON MON AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MIDATLC INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MIDATLC REGION NWD
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAPID DVLPMENT OF FRONTAL/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING MON AFTERNOON/EVENING..WITH SOME
SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES LIKELY TO OCCUR..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT COULD LEAD TO INTENSE RAIN RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  BY MON NIGHT...THERE IS A MODERATELY
HIGH CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z HI RES MODEL RUNS TO SUGGEST A SLOWING
OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SE VA SWWD INTO THE CNTL
NC WITH SOME INTENSE RAIN RATES PSBL AS LINE BECOMES COINCIDENT
WITH VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SUPPORT IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR A SWATH OF 1 TO 2"
PLUS AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF MAINE SWD INTO THE MID ATLC WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF LOCALIZED RAIN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN SEVERAL
HOURS.    CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY WERE RELATIVELY MINOR..THOUGH
DID INCREASE AMOUNTS FROM SE VA SWWD INTO NC GIVEN THE STRONGER
CONSENSUS WITH THE HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SLOW TRAINING
CONVECTION THERE MON NIGHT.  FARTHER SOUTH...FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AN UPPER LEVEL COL REGION FROM TEXAS EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  PLENTY OF MSTR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT
WITH PWS EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2.0 INCHES.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IN QPF
DETAILS HERE WILL BE QUITE LOW GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
PSBL IN SOME OF THE STGR/SLOW MOVING CELLS AND CELL MERGERS WITH
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SULLIVAN

$$





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