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000
FOUS30 KWBC 220114
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...VALID 03Z WED MAY 22 2013 - 00Z THU MAY 23 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WSW TUP 30 NNE GWO 20 W GWO 30 NE BQP 30 ESE ELD 30 ENE ELD
20 NW LLQ 20 E PBF 20 WNW M97 15 W NQA 20 E NQA MKL 30 SE MKL
25 NNE TUP 30 WSW TUP 45 WSW TUP.


LOWER MS VALLEY

TRIMMED NWRN PORTION OF EARLIER EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN
CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ARKANSAS.  EARLIER LEAD OUTFLOW BNDRY
HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY ACRS WRN TN SWWD INTO SERN ARKANSAS..WHILE
TRAILING LARGE BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE EWD
THROUGH CNTL ARKANSAS AS OF 00Z.  LATEST 21Z HRRR RUN HAS BEST
HANDLE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND OF CONVECTION..FOCUSING
HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN
TN...SWWD INTO EXTREME SE AR AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK ON
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON HIER CAPES AND PWS UP TO 1.75 INCHES.    THIS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LESSENING OF
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TUES NIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD HIGHER FFG VALUES AND THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL DIMINISHES.  UNTIL THEN..POTNL WILL EXIST FOR
SOME SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES WHICH MAY
RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SULLIVAN
$$