Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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311
FOUS30 KWBC 250823
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...VALID 12Z THU MAY 25 2017 - 12Z FRI MAY 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE CRW 20 ENE 48I 15 S EKN 25 N HSP 15 SW LWB 15 ESE MKJ
10 S MKJ 10 NW MKJ 6V3 10 E LNP 15 NW LNP 30 ESE JKL 40 ENE JKL
40 WNW I16 20 ESE HTS CRW 25 ESE CRW.


...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...


THE AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS GENERATING 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOME 5-6
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE OH VALLEY
ENE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE THE
ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...PIVOTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS EASTERN KY...SOUTHERN WV...AND SOUTHWEST
VA...WITH THE MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST...LINGERING OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS/ELONGATED TROWAL WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
TOTALS ON AVERAGE OF 0.50-1.0 INCH. WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
OVER THIS REGION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS RAINFALL RATES...WPC WILL NONETHELESS INCLUDE A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE DAY 1 ERO GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT WET SOILS/LOW FFG VALUES.

HURLEY
$$





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