Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 290655
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE JUL 29 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 30 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW DDC 30 NW JWG 25 SSE JWG HBR 40 NNE CDS 10 S BGD DHT
10 SSW CAO 40 ENE LVS 20 E SKX 20 N ALS 40 NE MYP 10 E CCU ASE
20 WSW ASE RIL 20 S CAG 45 S RWL 40 S DRC 10 NNE SIB TOR
35 WNW ITR 45 WNW GCK 35 SSW DDC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE PUB 25 WNW AFF BJC 10 NW FNL PUM CYS 20 E GXY 35 E DEN
10 SSE LIC 30 NNW LHX 10 ENE PUB.



THE VERY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD THRU MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..AS A VERY MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE..MORE THAN SEVERAL HARD TO TIME H5 S/WVS AND/OR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IMPACT THE REGION..AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BOILS UP
GIVEN SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE LATEST MODEL QPFS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES PERTAINING TO
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR..SO ENDED UP TAKING
A MANUAL BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE MANUAL QPF.   ONE AREA THAT
SEEMS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE FROM
EASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF CO..WHERE INITIALLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET ON THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER PWS
SUPPORTS THE ACTIVITY.  HERE..WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT
AREA..ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO ARE POSSIBLE..WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCH RAFL TOTALS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.  THE SAME WAS TRUE FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KS LATE IN THE
DAY 1 TIME FRAME.  THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM SOME ENSEMBLES AS WELL
AS TERRAIN WERE GIVEN CONSIDERATION IN DRAWING THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK AREA.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY BACK SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF NV/UT...AIDED BY THE
ONE OR MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS LIFTING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

BANN
$$





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