Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 050046
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

...VALID 01Z SAT SEP 05 2015 - 12Z SAT SEP 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

01Z UPDATE...
WITH CONTINUED LIFTING OF S/WV INTO SCNTL CANADA HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACRS NRN MN IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.  THERE REMAINS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND MSTR AXIS AHEAD
OF TAIL END OF THE S/WV TROF...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING FROM THE SOUTH.  RECENT MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS RIBBON OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SBCAPES EXTENDING N/S THROUGH
CNTL MN THAT COULD BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BANDS.  RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY HEAVY WITH
AMOUNTS...GENLY SHOWING POTNL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR
SO IN SEVERAL HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL OF THE 12Z HI RES
RUNS.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD APCH SOME OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES..BUT
IN GENL...ANY FF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISOLD.


SULLIVAN
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