Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 171822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...VALID 18Z THU APR 17 2014 - 00Z SAT APR 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 SW AAF 75 ESE KVOA 15 NW KIKT 15 NE KMDJ 15 SE 9F2 9F2 2GL
10 WSW NBG 20 NNE MOB 30 SW GZH 20 SSW ABY DQH 20 WSW BQK
20 N NRB 15 NW SGJ 30 E GNV 10 WNW OCF 40 S CTY 55 SE AAF
70 SW AAF.


FAR SOUTHEAST LA---FAR SOUTHERN MS---FAR SOUTHERN AL---FL
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA

AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
OVERALL---MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO---WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF
THE LA COAST.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SPEED AT WHICH PRECIP PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.  AT THE
MOMENT---WPC LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH WAS IN
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.  IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY---THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH--RAISING PW
VALUES TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS---EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE---NORTH FL AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  THE
INCREASING PWS AND STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LA---EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MS--FAR SOUTHERN AL---THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL.  THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE HEAVIEST RAINS
DEVELOP.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS DRAWN TO ENCOMPASS THE FARTHER
WESTWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS AS FAR WEST AS
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.  OTHERWISE---THERE IS A STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"+.

ORAVEC
$$





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