Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 010120
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
919 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...VALID 03Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 00Z THU OCT 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW COU 35 SSW IXD 20 E EWK 20 ESE CNK CBF 20 WNW FOD
20 NNE AMW 15 SSW DSM 20 ESE IRK 25 NW COU.


NORTHEAST KS---NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IA

CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY.  THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SLOW MOVING
FRONT WILL REMAIN 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN THIS
PERIOD.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.  THE
CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES ARW---NMM AND NSSL WRF WERE FAVORED WHICH
SHOWED MAX PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS REGIONS FROM NORTHEAST KS
INTO NORTHERN MO---WITH LESSER TOTALS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.  THE HI RES RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A MORE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED AXIS ALONG THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA---THE PERSISTENT
INFLOW INTO THIS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SOME
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
LOWER.

EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST

AN AXIS OF 1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.  WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO---CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ENHANCING CONVECTION MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA---WILL SUPPORT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGIONS BOTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2-4"+
POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION.  THIS MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING ANY ACTIVE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS (MPD) WITHIN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LINK FROM THE WPC HOME PAGE ABOVE THE TOP NEWS
OF THE DAY... OR GO DIRECTLY TO THE MPD PAGE:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/METWATCH/METWATCH_MPD.PHP.


ORAVEC/HURLEY


$$





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