Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

442
FOUS30 KWBC 271416
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1016 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...VALID 15Z TUE JUN 27 2017 - 12Z WED JUN 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNE D07 15 ENE BIS 40 N KBAC PKD 15 SSW 8Y2 25 ESE ADU
35 N STJ 35 NE MHK 35 N RSL 30 SW LBF 20 SSE TIF 40 SE ANW ANW
40 ENE IEN 45 NNE D07.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SE APF 10 WNW PGD BKV 30 S 40J 15 E AAF 15 WSW TLH
35 ENE 40J 30 NNW JAX 25 NNW DAB 10 N SUA 10 SSW HST 50 SE APF.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 ESE KOPM 25 NE PIL 10 N BKS 15 SSW SKF 10 WNW BAZ BAZ SGR
30 SW BPT 20 NNW KCRH 20 W KEHC.


...15Z UPDATE...

IN THE PLAINS WE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK TO INCLUDE MORE OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LOWER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AROUND PIERRE AND EAST OF RAPID CITY.
THIS AREA SITS NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE SHOULD
BE MORE PRONOUNCED THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LARGE SCALE MODEL
FORECASTS. THE 12Z HRRR PRODUCES A FOCUSED SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS REGION NORTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD CLUSTERS OF STORMS
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE NOSE
OF A LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM / STRONG INFLOW INTO EASTERN SD /
SOUTHEASTERN ND. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
...FLORIDA / TEXAS GULF COAST / UPPER MIDWEST...

WPC IS ISSUING THREE MARGINAL AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY, ONE ACROSS FLORIDA...ANOTHER NEAR COASTAL TX AND A THIRD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE TREND OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS ACROSS FL IS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING RESULT IN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY WITH SLIGHT STEERING MOTION. MEANWHILE A WEAKNESS ALOFT
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP INTACT
DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT...ONSHORE FLOW...LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN. IN EACH STATE THE
HI-RES SUITE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES CERTAIN LOCALES VULNERABLE FOR
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. FINALLY...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR
NW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
A 6-12 HR WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN. NO REAL CONSENSUS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
HI-RES SUITE ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...WE PLACED A LARGE PORTION OF NE/NERN KS NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IA/MN IN A MARGINAL THREAT.

BURKE/MUSHER

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.