Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 281438
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1038 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...VALID 15Z THU MAY 28 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 S MAF 10 NNW ODO 40 NNW ODO 30 E HOB 45 N HOB 55 SSE CVS
30 SSE CVN 30 ESE CVN 40 NW PVW 15 SSW AMA BGD 10 NNE BGD
30 WSW PYX 20 E EHA 35 NNE EHA 55 W GCK 45 WNW GCK 45 NNW GCK
55 N GCK 45 SW HLC 15 SSW HLC HLC 45 ENE HLC 35 W CNK CNK
30 W MHK 20 NW EMP 10 E CNU 20 WNW JLN 20 N VBT 35 E FSM
35 WSW RUE 20 NNW HOT 30 S MWT 25 ESE DEQ LBR 15 NNW SLR
15 SE TKI JWY 15 SE INJ 10 SSW TPL 25 S SSF 35 ESE COT 20 E LRD
LRD 60 WNW MMNL 50 WSW DRT 50 NNE 6R6 45 S MAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE MSL 50 NW CHA 30 N CHA 35 NE CHA 20 W RHP 25 SSW RHP
25 NNW GVL 15 ESE 47A VPC 30 SW VPC 10 SSE ANB 15 S EET
50 NNW GZH 45 WNW GZH 55 W GZH 50 N MOB 55 ENE HBG 50 SSE MEI
35 SSE MEI 15 SE MEI 25 S GTR 10 NW CBM 35 ESE TUP 10 S MSL
20 ENE MSL.


1500 UTC UPDATE

FAR SOUTHEAST TN---NW GA---NORTHERN TO WESTERN AL

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV
ACROSS CENTRAL TN.  CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE
HIGH PW AXIS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS
EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR LOOPS.  WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE IN THIS AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
AND/OR TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THIS AREA AND LOWERED FFG VALUES
FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION---RUNOFF ISSUES MAY DEVELOP FROM SHORT
TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+.

ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION---A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS CONTINUED WITH SOME CHANGES FOR ONGOING CONVECTION.  THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN
OK AND FAR WESTERN AR.  SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING OF CELLS IN
THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT 1-2"+ TOTALS IN AN HOUR.  THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WAS TRIMMED ON THE NORTHEAST END OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST
NE/FAR NW MO/FAR SW IA AS EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVER WEST TX ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  FINALLY---A SOUTHEAST EXPANSION TO THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO COVER THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS
FROM THE HI RES ARW AND NSSL WRF.


ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


...TX/OK/KS...

A VERY CHALLENGING 24 HRS COMING UP FOR PARTS OF KS SOUTH INTO
SATURATED AREAS OF OK AND TX... AS THREE CURRENT AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS THE
REGION. HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY PRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS. AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHTS FALLS... THREE AREAS OF SMALL SCALE
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT MUCH OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE NOR HI-RES VERSIONS HAVE MUCH INDICATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH AN
MCV AND PROPAGATING MASS OF CONVECTION SLIDING NORTH AND EAST. WPC
HAS A MPD #0145 OUT FOR THIS AREA AND THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES
TRACK THE VORT LOBE TOWARD IA/NORTHERN MO DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY BUT COULD EXIT THE DEEPEST POOL OF MOISTURE. THE SECOND AREA
IS A CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER RED RIVER
THAT IS BEGINNING TO FORM INTO A STRONG LINE/BOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
SPS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS SQUALL WITH LIKELY IMPRESSIVE
RAIN RATES TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST POTENTIALLY TOWARD THE DFW AREA
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND WITH ONGOING VULNERABILITY TO HEAVY
RAINS... THIS BEARS WATCHING. FINALLY INVOF OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR SWRN KS... A NARROW LINE OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS BUT HI-RES SUITE SUGGEST THIS
RE-DEVELOPING LINE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. NOW
HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND IMPACTS THE
LARGE SCALE EFFECTS LATER TODAY INTO FRI MORNING IS TO BE
DETERMINED BUT WPC WILL PLACE A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX TO EAST CENTRAL KS AS ANY
INTENSE RAIN RATES COULD JUST EXACERBATE THE SATURATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

MUSHER
$$





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