Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 290822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S DUX 25 NNE BGD 25 NW GAG 25 W AVK 20 SSW END 15 W PVJ
10 NNW GLE NFW 20 SSE SEP 25 SE 7F9 35 WSW 05F 25 NNW SAT
15 ESE HDO 30 NW COT 25 ENE MMPG 20 S DLF 40 WNW DRT 30 ESE 6R6
35 WNW E29 25 SSW BPG 45 NNW BPG 25 SW LBB 35 WNW LBB 20 S DUX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE GRD 20 NNW BUY 10 W JYO 30 SW AVP 20 N MSV 35 SW ALB ALB
20 WNW DDH GFL 20 W GFL 50 WNW GFL 30 SE SLK 10 SSW BTV
15 WNW MVL 10 ENE RUT 20 ENE AQW 10 NW DXR 10 WSW DXR 10 SSW EWR
20 ESE ILG RJD 15 SW CGE 20 NE FYJ 10 S FAF SFQ 10 S ECG
25 SW MQI 25 E MRH 15 SSE MRH 15 ESE NCA OAJ DPL 10 SSW CTZ
20 SW CPC 20 SW MYR 20 E HXD 10 NW JYL 25 ESE GRD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW CAE 20 W CAE 25 NNW CAE 35 NNW CUB 20 SSE UZA 10 SSW VUJ
10 SE HBI 15 W TTA 10 SSE 45J 15 NNE SSC 15 SSE MMT 15 ESE OGB
10 WNW CHS 20 E NBC 10 NE JYL 25 WSW CAE.


...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...


HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD WITH
THE SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION OF TS BONNIE INTO SC.  BONNIE REMAINS
EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE
SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC
TOWARD THE NE.  THE APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS
THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.
SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+
RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN NJ WHICH ALSO HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE 00Z UKMET AND HWRF.   MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON
THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE
DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS THERE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH PERHAPS ISOLD AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES...COULD LEAD TO A HIGHTENED THREAT OF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND HENCE HAVE INDICATED A MDT RISK FOR THAT AREA NWD
INTO SCNTL NC. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.


...SRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS
NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW
WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE
LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP AID CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AT START OF
THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG AND
EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX DURING
AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER
DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES
WITH PLACEMENT ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY HENCE A RATHER BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FROM THE NW/NRN
TX AND WRN OK SWD TOWARD CNTL TX.

SULLIVAN




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