Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 181411
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...VALID 15Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 SSE AAF 50 SSE AAF 15 SE AAF 20 N AAF 35 ENE PAM 10 S MAI
25 NNE ECP 20 ENE VPS 30 SE NPA 10 WSW NPA 10 WNW PNS 15 NE GZH
AUO 10 E AUO 15 E OPN 20 WNW JYL 35 WNW CHS 30 ENE CHS 45 E CHS
55 ESE CHS 65 SE CHS 70 SE HXD 65 E SSI 10 WNW SGJ 20 NW PIE
60 WSW SPG 105 WSW SPG 115 W PIE 110 SSE AAF 65 SSE AAF.


1400 UTC

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO REMOVE THE MODERATE RISK AREA GIVEN HIGH FFG VALUES AND
RAINFALL RATES THAT---AT THE MOMENT---REMAIN BELOW FFG VALUES AT
THE 1, 3 AND 6 HOUR INTERVAL.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY PUSH EASTWARD INTO LATER TODAY.
 OVERALL---NO CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING--WITH SHORT TERM
TRENDS SHOWING WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.  PRECIPITATION THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL---AL AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS
CURRENTLY A DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT---WITH
THE BEST CONVECTION REMAINING OFFSHORE.  AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD AND ASHORE EARLY THIS EVENING---THE CHANCES OF MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INLAND WILL INCREASE.  STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FL---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
COASTAL GA/SC.  THE GREATEST HOURLY RATES LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME---BUT AT THE MOMENT WITH HIGH FFG VALUES---THE RISK WAS KEPT
AT SLIGHT.  HOURLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF .25-.50" EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY---WITH HIGHER HOURLY TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW.  NO CHANGES IN TOTAL PRECIP
EXPECTATIONS---WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4"--WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS
WHERE CONVECTION ENHANCE LATER TODAY/EVENING.

ORAVEC


SOUTHEAST U.S...

A VERY WET TO PSBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
UNFOLD ACRS THE SE ON FRI THRU SAT AS S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD
FROM THE CNTL U.S. GRADUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE SE U.S.  OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE..DEEP SUBTROPICAL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRAWN NW FROM THE ERN GULF AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT ACRS NRN
FL ON FRI.  PWS OF UP TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO 3 STDS
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE FUNNELED INTO THE ERN GULF COAST AND SE
STATES WITH VERY CONVERGENT 85H FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF...EXPECTED STGR COMMA HEAD PCPN BAND
TO DVLP TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHILE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
RAINS TEND TO TRACK ENEWD ACRS NRN FL THROUGH ERN GA AND COASTAL
SC.  THE COMBO OF UNSEASONABLY HI MSTR..SLOW MOVEMENT..INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS MUCH OF NRN FL INTO SE AL..MOST OF CNTL/SRN
GA..SC..AND SRN NC.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
6 INCHES LIKELY IN STGR SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS.   THE GFS
CONTINUED TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS..WHILE A
BLEND OF THE NAM..EC..AND CANADIAN MASS FIELDS WERE GENLY IN
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER TAKING MID LEVEL LOW ACRS THE FL
PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW GA BY SAT MRNG.  RELIED HEAVILY ON THE
LATTER ALONG WITH HIGH RES WRF ARW RUN. THE MDT RISK AREA WAS
BASED ON WHERE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVIER SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE
RAINS AND PSBL RUNOFF ISSUES MAY DVLP.

SULLIVAN
$$




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