Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 260003
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...VALID 01Z FRI MAY 26 2017 - 12Z FRI MAY 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W CRW 15 ESE CRW 25 ESE CRW 10 S 48I 20 ENE 48I 10 SE EKN
20 S LWB 10 E MKJ 10 NW MKJ 6V3 10 E LNP 15 NW LNP 30 ESE JKL
40 ENE JKL 40 WNW I16 20 ESE HTS 10 W CRW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE LGA 10 ESE BLM 10 W ACY 15 WNW MIV 10 NW ILG 15 SSE RDG
10 SW ABE 12N 20 NNE CDW 10 NE LGA.


01Z UPDATE...

...ERN PA..NJ..SRN NY...
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE EVOLUTION OF NEW COMMA
HEAD BAND TO TEH NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER ORGANIZING ACRS THE
DELMARVA REGION AS OF 23Z.  RADAR SHOWED AN ORGANIZING BAND OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY NEWED ACROSS NE MD/DE
REGION TOWARD SE PA AND NJ.  THESE STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO FEED
OFF OF MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG AND DECENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.  SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS BAND DESPITE PWS ONLY AROUND 1" OR
SO.  AS S/WV LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION CONTINUES TO
TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING...COULD SEE
A SLOW PIVOTING AREA OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY
THROUGH PARTS OF NJ/SRN NY DURING THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWER FFG
VALUES ARE PRESENT OVER NRN NJ.  SEE MPD #273 FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...

AS ABOVE S/WV AND ASSOCD LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
THIS EVENING...WRAP AROUND NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE SHWERS
INTO MOUNTAINS OF WV/ERN KY/SW VA OVERNIGHT.  CONSENSUS OF HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED .50 TO 1 INCH RAINS MAY OCCUR
WHICH GIVEN THE VERY LOW FFG VALUES COULD RAPIDLY LEAD TO RUNOFF
ISSUES.  THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THHE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SULLIVAN/PETERSEN
$$




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