Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 280819
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT MAY 28 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S FLO 20 NW SUT 10 WSW SUT 10 S MYR 40 SSW MYR 35 E CHS
10 SSE CHS 20 E NBC HXD 15 W HXD 25 NW NBC 20 S OGB 25 SSE SSC
20 S FLO.



COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...
THE APPROACH OF TD#2 WILL BRING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PARTS OF THE SC AND EXTREME SRN NC COAST PRIMARILY LATE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT IS EMBDD WITHIN A
PLUME OF 1.75 TO 2+" PWS.  SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PSBL AS
SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST..BUT AS OF NOW...TIMING SUGGESTS AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SC AND SRN NC
COASTS BY SUN MRNG. BOTH THE 00Z WRF ARW AND WRF NMM SUGGEST ISOLD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 5 INCHES...THOUGH THE NSSL WRF IS ALIGNED WITH
THE SLOWER NAM CONEST IN KEEPING LOWER TOTALS AND THUS WARRANTING
ONLY A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.   SEE THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS
FROM THIS STORM FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SRN TX...
MODELS SHOW RETURN FLOW SURGE DVLPG OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SAT/SAT EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION..PSBL MCS DVLPMENT SAT NIGHT UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT ACRS NRN
MEX.  MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST HERE BOTH IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
BUT ALL GENLY TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CNVTV
THREAT ACRS THIS AREA.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
PSBL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN LATER DATA TRENDS.

SULLIVAN




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