Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230150
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
946 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE SEP 23 2014 - 00Z WED SEP 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE ATS 30 E CNM 25 NNW PEQ PEQ 20 S PEQ 30 N E38 20 NNW E38
20 NNW MRF 35 NW MRF 50 S GDP 50 SW GDP 30 ESE MMCS 40 WSW MMCS
70 S DMN 80 SSW DMN 60 ESE DUG 55 ENE DUG 35 SW SVC SVC 45 N SVC
65 WNW TCS 65 NW TCS 60 NNW TCS 60 N TCS 55 S ABQ 40 SSW 4MY
15 S 4MY 15 WNW CQC 25 N CQC LVS 20 ENE LVS 40 ESE LVS 35 W TCC
40 SW TCC 50 W CVS 30 NNE ROW 25 NE ATS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW ATS CNM 25 SSE CNM 35 ESE GDP 25 SE GDP 15 SSE GDP
10 SW GDP 25 W GDP 40 NW GDP 45 ESE ALM 35 E ALM 15 SE SRR
25 NE SRR 20 ESE 4CR 35 ESE 4CR 15 NW ROW 20 NW ATS 15 SW ATS.


MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MAINLY TO
DECREASE A BIT BOTH THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.  THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN TX/SOUTHERN NM THIS EVENING..BUT THIS FLOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND/OR VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO
THIS REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS CONTINUING H85 SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED 1+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN
HOUR OR SO INTO THE LATER MONDAY NIGHT HOURS.  THUS..KEPT THE
SLIGHT RISK INTACT OVER A STILL RATHER LARGE AREA..WITH THE
MODERATE RISK WHERE FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY LOW.

TERRY
$$




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