Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240403
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...VALID 0401Z FRI MAR 24 2017 - 12Z FRI MAR 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW OFK LXN 30 NNW MCK 30 WSW LBF 30 NNW LBF 25 E TIF
30 NE ONL 25 W YKN 25 ESE FSD SPW 20 ENE SUX 15 SSW OFK.


A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS TO ADDRESS ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLS FOSTERING SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 79 HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED AT:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=007
9&yr=2017

AS PER THAT DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ACROSS AN AREA FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST NEB...WITH THE ACTIVITY FOCUSING JUST NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE MEANWHILE
OVER EASTERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH VWP
DATA INDICATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB EXCEEDING 50 TO 60 KTS.
THIS IS BEING INTERCEPTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH FORCING FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION IS
QUITE MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE MODEST WITH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 1
INCH POOLED ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STRONG DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN AXIS OF REPEATING/TRAINING CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEB. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF HEIGHT FALLS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO FOCUS FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA.
ALREADY SOME 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED PER
DUAL-POL DATA...AND WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 06Z.
THUS...EXPECT SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

ORRISON/SCHICHTEL
$$




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