Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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481
FOUS30 KWBC 040123
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CUT BACK QUITE A BIT OF THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK
AREA...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH (NORTH OF NC)...BASED ON THE
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/MESOANALYSIS TRENDS AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE. FARTHER NORTH (NORTH OF
NC)... THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES ARE RUNNING OUT OF REAL ESTATE AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD THE COAST...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS...THE RATES
ARE WELL BELOW THE 1/3/6 HOURLY FFG. FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA...MIXED LAYER CAPE TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND AS HAS THE 1 AND 3 HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES. BECAUSE OF THIS...MPD #30 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS OF 0030Z.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW SLIGHT RISK REGION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY CONTINUES...AS THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL INFLOW COULD STILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN AREAS
WITH CELL TRAINING.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...



1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





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