Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 310843
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 12Z MON AUG 31 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 E CHS 40 WSW MYR 10 E FLO 45J 10 N SOP 10 ESE TTA 15 NE RWI
20 SSW EDE 40 NE NKT 40 SSW HSE 40 SE MRH 50 S MRH 70 SSE SUT
50 E CHS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW VVG LAL 20 N PGD 10 S RSW 30 W APF 65 SW SRQ 65 W PIE
65 WNW BKV 45 S CTY 30 W OCF 10 WSW OCF 10 SW VVG.


FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC

THE CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE
WELL DEFINED VORT THAT WILL  CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH
TIME--BUT STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG MOIST (PW VALUES 2.00-2.25"+) SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST PUSH OF
PRECIP---WITH THE OVERALL MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND CMC GEM.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS
THESE AREAS---SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTH
TO NORTH DIRECTION POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING PERIOD---IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

WEST CENTRAL COASTAL FL

ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
COASTAL AREA OF FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
VORT MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA---THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS VORT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS.  SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING REGIONS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA AND IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL VORT.   THIS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.


ORAVEC
$$





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