Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 040700
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

...VALID 06Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N EVV 30 SE BMG 10 NW ILN 25 SSE PHD 10 N LBE 10 W JST
10 NNE 2G4 25 W MRB 20 NNW SHD 25 S EKN 10 N LWB BCB 20 ENE LNP
25 N OQT 25 NNW CSV 25 ENE GLW 30 SE FTK 15 WSW FTK OWB 20 N EVV.


...NORTHERN TN VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...INTO WV AND SOUTHWEST
PA...

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE SHAVING QUITE A BIT OF THE
AREA...CONFINING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN/OH...EASTERN KY AND FAR NORHTHERN TN... MUCH OF WV...AND
SOUTHWEST PA. THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FFG...AS
WHILE AREAL-AVERAGE QPF IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL
EXCEED 2-2.5 INCHES...SOME OF IT WILL BE IN FROZEN FORM LATER IN
THE PERIOD (TONIGHT). STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF A POSITIVE TILTED MID/UPPER TROF
EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS AT LEAST THRU WED EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
WITH A MOIST H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF
MOISTURE OF AOA 1.5 INCH PWS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2+ INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN KY INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OF WV AND SOUTHWESTERN PA WHERE FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWER.

HURLEY


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