Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 181508
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...VALID 15Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW AEG LVS 25 NNE TCC 40 SE AMA 20 SSW SPS 15 SE TRL
30 NW POE 20 SW P92 10 N KVBS 25 NW KGVX 20 E KRP 45 WSW VCT
20 NNE E29 55 WNW E29 20 SE E38 70 SSW GDP 50 SSE MMCS
45 SSW MMCS 90 ESE DUG 50 SE DUG 40 NE DUG 50 NE SAD 65 ESE SJN
10 WSW AEG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
INK 25 NW PEQ 40 W PEQ 30 SSE GDP 45 SSE GDP 60 SSW GDP
15 SSW MMCS 40 WSW MMCS 85 ESE DUG 50 ESE DUG 40 E DUG
45 WSW SVC 50 NW SVC 70 NW TCS 50 NNW TCS 35 SSW 4MY 15 ENE CQC
20 N CVS 15 NNW CVN 15 NNE PVW 35 SW CDS 45 NNW DYS 40 SSW SWW
25 SE MDD INK.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW CNM 10 E ELP 65 S DMN 55 SSW DMN 75 SSW DMN 50 ESE DUG
40 WSW SVC 35 NW SVC 30 N SVC 30 ENE TCS 45 S 4MY 60 NE 4CR
35 SSW CVS 40 ENE ATS 15 SSW CNM.


NM/TX BIG COUNTRY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LARGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS FOR SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK REMAIN
FROM SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMAINS OF ODILE, WITH A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN NM.  THE 1/3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LOWER OVER THIS REGION WITH THE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LONG DURATION FLOODING
REMAINS A CONCERN...THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (3-3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OR 1.75-2") AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL/HIGH AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-3.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THE FFG AND ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK.  THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX ALONG WITH
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO WITHIN A PARTLY CLOUDY REGION
-- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS AFTERNOON.  RECENT
MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS NUDGED NORTHEAST IN
COORDINATION WITH THE METWATCH DESK.  SEE MPD #0386 FOR MORE ON
THE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TX, SLATED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND COVERING THROUGH ~19Z.


EASTERN TX/SOUTHWEST LA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
INSTABILITY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN TX, WITH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
CURRENTLY FADING.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A PARTLY CLOUDY
REGION -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SCATTER-SHOT WITHIN A TRIANGLE BOUNDED BY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LA, THE MIDDLE TX COAST, AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TODAY WITHIN AN AREA OF >2"
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-8" ARE ADVERTISED IN THIS REGION, SO KEPT SOUTHEAST
TX AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK.  SEE MPD #0387
FOR MORE ON THE SHORT TERM/FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH ~20Z.


KS/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WHILE A BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME
FORWARD PROPAGATING BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS, NEW DISORGANIZED
ACTIVITY HAS REAPPEARED IN EASTERN KS.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES
TO FADE IN THIS REGION, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING HERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN.

ROTH
$$




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