Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 040210
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

...VALID 03Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 00Z THU MAR 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N MKL LRF 20 S RUE 30 NNE RUE 25 WNW CGI 25 SE BAK ZZV AGC
15 SW JST 15 SE 2G4 25 NNW LWB 20 NNE 6V3 25 SW 1A6 10 NNE BNA
20 N MKL.


...LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA/WV...

ONCE AGAIN..NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND
OVERALL THINKING. WPC DID THOUGH EXPAND THE AREA SLIGHTLY BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FFG. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF A POSITIVE TILTED
MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/MID
MS AND TN VALLEYS AT LEAST THRU WED EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH A MOIST H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
POOLING OF MOISTURE OF AOA 1.5 INCH PWS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH
AND MS RIVERS UP INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS..AND ESPECIALLY SO
FROM KY INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND SOUTHWESTERN PA WHERE FF
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWER.

MUSHER


$$




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