Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 291448
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 15Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE HYI 15 E DTO 20 SE OUN 20 E UNO 40 S PAH 50 E MKL
10 NNE TUP 10 SSW MLU 20 N CWF 15 ESE BYY 10 ENE HYI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GVT 25 NE ADH 25 NW BVX 20 NNE NQA 20 SSE OLV 25 NW GLH
40 S ELD 20 ENE JAS LVJ 30 NW 5R5 25 NNE 62H GVT.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S SGT 20 W M89 15 SSE PRX 25 SSE MLC 15 NNW SRC 30 NE SGT
10 S SGT.


1500 UTC UPDATE...

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM CONEST)...HAVE
INTRODUCED A HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTH TX EAST INTO CENTRAL AR. THE LATEST GOES-14 SRSO
IR LOOPS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS (-70C OR
LOWER) WITHIN A ROBUST MCS ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK. PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IN
THE GENESIS REGION (MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG) ARE ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIALLY ROBUST 1-3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES...UP TO 2-2.5 INCHES AN
HOUR. PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM-CONEST...LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY.

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

BROAD SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING UPPER TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN
TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES OVER
EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW MS
AND WESTERN TN.  THE HI RES ARW---NSSL WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO
MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
WERE FAVORED FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION.   IN AREAS OF TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP
TOTAL OF 2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





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