Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 131844
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...VALID 18Z SAT SEP 13 2014 - 00Z MON SEP 15 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW MMMY 20 WNW MMAN 45 NNW MMAN 65 E MMMV 45 SW MMNL
35 S MMNL 15 ENE EBG 25 E PIL 60 E BRO 80 SE BRO 85 SE MMMA
90 S MMMA 75 ENE MMCV 40 N MMCV 75 NW MMCV 35 SSW MMMY.

THE NEXT BATCH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS..ASSOCIATED WITH AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERLY WAVE
JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST.  VERY HIGH PWS..IN EXCESS
OF 2.25 INCHES..BEING BROUGHT INLAND ON A MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW..ARE SUPPORTING THIS NEXT SURGE OF HEAVIER
RAINS.  THIS NEXT SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOURS..BUT WITH THE CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE EASTERLY WAVE AND A GRADUAL BACKING OF
THE H85 FLOW THAT WILL RESULT FROM THIS..RAINS SHOULD LESSEN
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING
HOURS..SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR SO
POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N CHS 25 NW NBC 15 WSW TBR DBN 10 NE MCN 30 NNW MCN
40 ESE ATL 20 S WDR 27A 20 SSW EQY HRJ 15 NW PGV 20 SW EDE
30 SE OCW 10 SSW OAJ 20 N CHS.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME ENHANCED RAINS/CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO GA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF AL.  ACTIVITY
DURING THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
LIKELY TO BE THE HEAVIEST..SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT WHICH IS PRETTY
MUCH QUASI-STATIONARY..AFTERNOON HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  POOLING OF
VERY HI PWS..IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES..ALONG WITH SLOW CELL
MOTION..WILL SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINS INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS..WITH SOME TOTALS OF 1-2
INCHES IN AN HOUR OR SO POSSIBLE.

TERRY
$$




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