Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 150102
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 00Z WED APR 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE ABE MUI 10 NW CXY 20 SW SEG 25 NNE IPT 20 ENE SYR
30 WSW SLK 20 NNE SLK 10 WSW PLB BTV 20 S BTV 20 NNW RUT SCH
45 NE MSV MGJ 12N 10 SE ABE.



NE PA INTO NRN NY/WRN VT...


THIS WILL BE A WET PERDIOD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ALL THE WAY
NORTHWARD THRU THE EASTERN STATES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND..AHEAD
OF AN OPEN BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROF.  THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN..TAKING THE MORE PHASED H5 TROF INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
TUESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM..THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE
OPEN WITH UP TO
50+ KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING IN PWS GREATER THAN 1.50 INCHES
INTO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS..WHILE LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENS..WITH GREATER THAN 50+ KTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET ALSO BRINGING IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGION.  THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS..WITH PRETTY FAVORABLE
HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT.  THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA INTO NY STATE WHERE THE HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN WILL
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES..WITH THIS THREAT
MAINLY FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
1-2 INCH RAINS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA..WITH SOME ISOLATED 2-3 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE.


SULLIVAN
$$





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