Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 040713
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

...VALID 06Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N EVV 30 SE BMG 10 NW ILN 25 SSE PHD 10 N LBE 10 W JST
10 NNE 2G4 25 W MRB 20 NNW SHD 25 S EKN 10 N LWB BCB 20 ENE LNP
25 N OQT 25 NNW CSV 25 ENE GLW 30 SE FTK 15 WSW FTK OWB 20 N EVV.


...NORTHERN TN VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...INTO WV AND SOUTHWEST
PA...

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE SHAVING QUITE A BIT OF THE
AREA...CONFINING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN/OH...EASTERN KY AND FAR NORTHERN TN... MUCH OF WV...AND
SOUTHWEST PA. THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FFG...AS
WHILE AREAL-AVERAGE QPF IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL
EXCEED 2-2.5 INCHES...SOME OF IT WILL BE IN FROZEN FORM LATER IN
THE PERIOD (TONIGHT).

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETTING UP IN
ADVANCE OF A POSITIVE TILTED MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AND SOME HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND NORTHERN TN VALLEYS  AT LEAST
THRU WED EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MOIST H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OF AOA 1.25
INCH PWS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED
SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS (WITH 6 HOURLY FFG OVER MANY AREAS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 1 INCH").

HURLEY


$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.