Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 181326
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...VALID 15Z MON SEP 18 2017 - 12Z TUE SEP 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW SLB SPW 10 NNE EST 25 E FRM 15 SW AEL 15 NE CAV
10 SE EBS 10 SE AMW 15 W OXV 20 SSW OTM 10 SE BRL 15 SSW PIA
15 NW MTO 10 NNW FOA MWA 15 NNE POF 25 E UNO 25 SE SGF
15 SSE JLN 25 SE CFV 20 WSW BVO 15 N PNC 35 ENE AAO 25 WNW FOE
10 WNW FNB 10 WNW OMA 20 WSW SLB.


15Z UPDATE...
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTL PLAINS INTO THE
PARTS OF THE MO VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL S/WV OVER THE CNTL
U.S...BUT CELLS REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE S/WV ITSELF.  EXPANDED MARGINAL RISK SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...WITH SOME ISOLD CELLS PSBL PRODUCING SOME SHORT
TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF  1 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.  SULLIVAN
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

...EAST-CENTRAL U.S...

A S/WV TROF NOW EXITING THE GREAT BASIN IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
ENEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT
BEFORE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY TO THE
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO INCREASE LIFT OVER
A SLOW MOVING FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
EMBEDDED ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION MON AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS ENEWD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40 KTS
MON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU
THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC AS PER
WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THERE REMAINS DECENT SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE SFC LOW AND
LEADING WARM FRONT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM ERN KS/NE OK EWD TO
IA/MO/IL. FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT ALSO SUPPORTS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW. ACCORDINGLY...A WPC
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERN KS/FAR
NERN OK INTO MUCH OF MO AND PARTS OF IA/IL WHERE SOME CELL
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE.

SCHICHTEL
$$




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