Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 281408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...VALID 15Z THU APR 28 2016 - 12Z FRI APR 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W 3I2 30 NE PKB 15 W MGW 15 NNE EKN 15 SSE EKN 20 N ROA
15 ENE HLX 15 N GEV 20 NNW 6V3 30 N LNP 35 NE 1A6 30 N OQT
25 S EKQ 30 W EKQ 25 ESE FTK 15 WNW FFT 30 N FFT 40 SSE ILN
20 W 3I2.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW DAN 10 N RZZ FFA 20 WNW HSE 10 NW EWN 10 ENE SOP
15 SW DAN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HQZ 15 NE MWL 25 W RPH 10 SW F05 10 ESE LAW 15 NE ADM DEQ
25 NE TXK 20 NNE DTN 15 WSW SHV 20 E TYR HQZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E NBG 20 N ASD 25 SE HBG 30 NNE BFM 20 NW PNS 20 S NPA
20 N KVOA KVKY 10 E NBG.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX TONIGHT.  AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOWS BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD---STRENGTHENING
INFLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION---GIVEN
A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD AS TO WHERE MAX AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE---BELIEVE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TX/SOUTHERN
OK/ARKLATEX.   WHILE FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH---THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION  AND TRAINING POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY--WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK.

...NORTHEAST NC...

A SLIGHT RISK IS CONTINUED FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST NC THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  THIS IS ALONG THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  MUCH OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WHERE PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.    WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOWING WIDESPREAD 2-4" OF RAIN ALREADY HAVING FALLEN
ACROSS NORTHEAST NC...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE ADDITIONAL
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLOODING IS A THREAT.  RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WHERE CELLS ARE SLOW MOVING OR TRAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

FFG VALUES REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FIRE AHEAD OF
AN UPSTREAM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD.  ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF .50-1".

...SOUTHERN MS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN AL TO FAR WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA...

ONGOING IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN SOUTHERN MS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HIGH RAINFALL RATES PLUS SLOW
MOVEMENT...LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLS AND REPORTS OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN MS INDICATE EVENT IS
EXTREME ENOUGH TO EXCEED HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 4-5
INCHES IN 6 HOURS.  THE MODELS FORECAST THE MOISTURE SUPPLY TO
DECREASE LATER TODAY AND FOR LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD
IN...SUGGESTING THE EVENT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.  PROPAGATION
VECTORS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO THE AXIS OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

PETERSEN/ORAVEC
$$




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