Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 010622
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

...VALID 06Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 12Z TUE SEP 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HUT 30 SE MHK 15 SSE LXT 40 NNE SGF 20 WSW JLN 15 ESE WLD HUT.

KANSAS/MISSOURI...

THE PROGRESSIVE MCS OVER KANSAS SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE LINE
WITH SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE MESOLOW NORTHEAST
OF WICHITA.  ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...THE INTENSE
CORES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND OCCASIONALLY FOLLOWED BY TRAINING CELLS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN EXCEEDING GUIDANCE VALUES.  THE CURRENT MCS WILL
MORE LIKELY MAKE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
EXCEEDING GUIDANCE VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS INFLUENCES
THE REGION.  GIVEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT...CELL MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S CELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING RAIN RATES THAT EXCEED FFG
WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD.

JAMES
$$





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