Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261952
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...VALID 21Z SUN JUL 26 2015 - 12Z MON JUL 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE SRQ 20 NNE RSW 25 ESE APF 40 S APF 35 WSW APF 30 WSW SRQ
10 ENE SRQ.


...SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ELONGATED UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF.  MODELS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA---WITH MORE SPREAD IN QPF SOLUTIONS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY TOTALS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS STRONG
INFLOW AXIS--WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5" POSSIBLE.


...EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE...

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM EASTERN CO AROUND 0000 UTC MON---PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN KS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.


...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL...

ONGOING MCS STILL LOOKING GOOD THRU PARTS OF NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IA AT THIS TIME..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME WEAKENING
PAST HOUR OR SO.  BELIEVE SOME WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS..AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER PROGRESSIVE..AS THE SUPPORTING H5 S/WV TO ITS NORTH
CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO INTO WESTCENTRAL IL..BUT THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MCS..ITS MOVEMENT INTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER FF GUIDANCE
VALUES..AND EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING THREAT
WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON.

ORAVEC/TERRY/HURLEY
$$




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