Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FOUS30 KWBC 280826
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...VALID 12Z TUE MAR 28 2017 - 12Z WED MAR 29 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE JSV 30 WNW DEQ 10 S SLR 15 WNW CRS 15 ESE ACT 10 WNW GTU
15 NNW T82 35 SE SJT 30 NNE SJT 45 NNE SWW CDS 10 S PPA 20 N DUX
15 N CAO 15 SE TAD 35 S PUB PUB 25 E COS LIC 10 WNW ITR
55 ESE GLD 25 SSE HLC 25 NW SLN 30 W EMP PPF 20 SW GMJ
20 NNE JSV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE MLC 20 WNW SLR 10 NNW HQZ 10 WSW AFW 10 W MWL 40 NNW 7F9
30 NE ABI 45 SSW F05 25 NE CDS 30 WSW CSM 15 NNE CSM 25 SE JWG
SWO TUL 10 W MKO 30 SE MLC.


...S-CENTRAL PLAINS...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY
AS IT REACHES THE ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THE MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT
WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS
STEADILY INTO THE S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER DAY1. THE ENSUING
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELONGATED STRIPE OF MOD-HVY
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND EVOLVING/EXPANDING
CCB/DEFORMATION AND DEEPENING TROWAL. LEAD POTENT LLJ MOISTURE
INFLOW UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TRANSLATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
POTENTIALLY PROGRESSIVE WITH MESO COLD POOL DEVELOPMENTS...BUT
DEEPEST AND MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWS UP TO 1.5") AND HEIGHT
FALLS/INSTABILITY SEEMS TO COMBINE/FOCUS MOST OVER S-CENTRAL OK
AND NRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH CELL MERGERS. WPC PROGS HAVE TRENDED
HEAVIEST QPF UPWARDS TO 3-5" LOCALLY THERE...WITH MORE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AMOUNTS WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO
IS MORE SUPPORTED NOW BY WELL CLUSTERED 00 UTC ARW/NNMB/WRF
NSSL/NAM CONEST GUIDANCE AND FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT SPC SEVERE
THREAT AREAS.

SCHICHTEL
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.