Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 280734
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE JUL 28 2015 - 12Z WED JUL 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EOK 25 WSW EOK 20 E STJ 25 N LWC 20 WNW TOP 20 N MHK 20 NW FNB
20 SE AIO 20 ESE CIN 10 W MCW 15 WSW FKA 20 NE DEH 10 NW EFT
10 SSE RFD VYS EOK.


MID MS VALLEY

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MB AND WESTERN ONTARIO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES
REGION.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN AFTER 1200 UTC.  HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL
CONSENSUS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED HI RES AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS---WAS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MN/WI/IL/IA BORDER AREA---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA
AND NW MO.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO---RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER OFF THE NW FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS PERIOD.    PW VALUES---HOWEVER---REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE IN A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THIS
CENTER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AGAIN LIKELY IN THIS HI PW AXIS---WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS---LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SW TO WEST CENTRAL FL.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED
AREAS.

MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/UPPER TN
VALLEY

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  THERE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS AREAS OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS--LEADING TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.  LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD---WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS DEPICTED--WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE UPPER TN
VALLEY---THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC.

ORAVEC
$$




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