Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 300659
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...VALID 06Z WED JUL 30 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW GLE 25 SE PPA 20 SSE CAO 25 N LHX 15 WSW GLD 35 SW HYS
35 ESE AAO 25 E ROG 10 N LRF 25 N ELD 30 WSW TXK 25 NW GLE.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
CHK 25 ESE PYX 20 WNW LBL 10 SSW GCK 30 E DDC 30 WSW WLD
15 NW GCM 20 ENE FSM 30 WNW MWT 20 SSE MLC CHK.


WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLYH THIS MORING SHOWED THE APPROACH OF A
STREAM OF FASTER FLOW CROSSING NORTHERN NM AND CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AS IT DOES SO...IT WAS HELPING TO SPIN
UP MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY OVER A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.  THE
RESULTING CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SET
UP CERTAINLY FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING TO BE FED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS STILL SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS OK...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
THE LATITUDE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.  WPC
CONTINUED A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MDT RISK MAINLY ACROSS
OK JUST IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BANN



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