Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 191824
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...VALID 18Z SAT JUL 19 2014 - 00Z MON JUL 21 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



..ERN GULF COAST STATES/SE U.S..


LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LIFTING MAIN
ENERGY ASSOCD WITH BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS NEWD INTO
ERN CANADA THIS PD WHILE WEAK S/WV ENERGY DROPPING DOWN WELL TO
THE EAST SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE OVER THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES
HELPS MAINTAIN SOME BROAD TROFINESS THRU THE THE TN VALLEY REGION
BY LATE SUN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACRS
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE WHERE POOLING OF VERY HI
PWS..REMNANTS OF WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY..AND WEAK IMPULSES AHEAD OF
UPR TROF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER CNVTV RAINS.
SOMEWHAT LARGER MODEL SPREAD EXISTS AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FOCUS WILL OCCUR...WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FOCUS.  ENDED UP
TAKING AN AVERAGE OF HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE HERE..PLACING HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NEAR RATHER BROAD AXIS OF 2 INCH PWS AXIS.  85H
INFLOW/CONVERGENCE IS FCST TO BE RATHER WEAK..AND ALTHOUGH CONDS
WILL SUPPORT POTNL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE REGION INTO COASTAL AREAS OF GA/SC..OVERALL
THREAT OF ORGANIZED EXCESSIVE RAINS SHOULD BE LOW AND RATHER
ISOLD.

SULLIVAN





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