Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 040654
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT JUL 04 2015 - 12Z SUN JUL 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW 8A0 25 NE CBM 40 WSW TUP 40 SSE UTA 25 SE UTA 20 S OLV
35 E OLV 30 NNW MSL 30 SSE MQY 25 NNE CSV 30 N OQT 15 SSW 1A6
35 SSE 1A6 20 ESE TYS 25 W RHP 15 NW 8A0.

H5 S/WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. H5 TROF..MAINTAINING TROFINESS THRU THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD.  THE S/WV NOW VICINITY OF KS IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE
MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM..ALONG WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY..WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE
LATEST MODEL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
IDEA..SO WPC QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF THEM..BUT WITH A BIT
MORE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE..AS PER THE
ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF.  MOSTLY EXPECT 0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES WHERE TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OCCURS.
OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PERIOD WHERE FF
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW..FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN
AL INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TN.

TERRY
$$





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