Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 210124
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...VALID 01Z WED JUN 21 2017 - 12Z WED JUN 21 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSW KGUL W60 30 ENE KCRH 15 ESE ARA 20 SE MCB 25 E PIB
40 ESE JAN 25 ESE JAN JAN 30 NE JAN 20 SE GTR 15 S GAD 10 W GVL
15 WSW UZA 10 SSE RDU 20 NE 9W7 55 NE FFA 115 E FFA 90 E HSE
45 S HSE 50 ESE ILM 20 ESE CHS 20 SSW LHW 15 NE VAD 20 E CTY
20 NE BKV 35 NNE PGD 15 NE RSW 40 S APF 80 WNW KEY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW HSE EWN 20 SW CPC 15 SSE MLJ 10 SE LGC 30 SSE EET
40 S TCL 30 NE NMM EET 10 NNW AHN 20 SE EQY GWW 25 ENE FFA
20 WNW HSE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW QT8 15 ESE 3B6 25 N 7R3 15 ENE HDC 35 NW MOB 15 SSE GZH
MAI 20 SW BGE 25 S BGE 10 SE TLH 30 SW 40J 50 SW 40J 75 SE AAF
90 SSE AAF 120 S AAF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N XCN 35 E SRN 20 N MSY 25 NNW GPT 25 NNE BFM 15 NNW CEW
25 N ECP 30 ENE PAM 20 NNE AAF 20 SE AAF 50 S AAF 55 S AAF
65 SSW AAF.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE PQL 40 SSE BIX 25 S GPT HSA 20 NNW GPT 15 NW MOB
10 NNW MOB 20 WNW NSE 20 NW NSE 10 WSW CEW VPS 15 SSW DTS
40 SE NPA.


...RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM CINDY FROM SOUTHEAST LA EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...

HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT DAY 1 PERIOD /12Z WED/.
SYSTEM REMAINS ASYMMETRICAL GIVEN THE SLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST..WITH INCREASING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
EITHER THE AREAL COVERAGE OR THE CATAGORIES AFTER THEY WERE
COLLABORATED ON THE 18Z CALL WITH AFFECTED SOUTHERN REGION
OFFICES.

...SE U.S NEWD INTO ERN NC...

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITHIN DEEP
LAYERED TROPICAL MSTR CIRCULATING NWD/NEWD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM
CINDY OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC.  IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME INTENSE AND VERY
SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINS THIS PD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
OVERNIGHT.  THIS...ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND GENERAL DEEP LAYERED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WILL LEAD
TO POTNL SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT
TERM RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OVER 4
INCHES GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BANN

$$




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