Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 251354
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
953 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE AUG 25 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS AND SOME OF THE RECENT HIRES
GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER THINKING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

...SOUTHWEST U.S...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUILDING SLOWLY NWD FROM BAJA/NW MEX AROUND WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVER CO/NM REGION WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF SRN CA/AZ INTO THE CNTL GT
BASIN.  MODELS SHOW WEAK S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NWD FROM WRN MEX AS
WELL AS HIER LEVEL ENERGY WORKING NEWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST THIS
MORNING THAT SHOULD ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF NV/UT BY WED MRNG.
WHILE MODELS GENLY SHOW SIMILARITIES HERE WITH LARGE SCALE MASS
FIELD DETAILS...MODEL QPFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY LARGE DETAIL
DIFFERENCE WITH PLACEMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ANY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT OVER THIS REGION.   HI RES MODEL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW POTNL FOR LOCAL 3 HR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES ESPECIALLY THROUGH PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA WHERE
CONFLUENT SLY 85-7H FLOW WOULD FAVOR SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FORCING
INTO THE AREA THRU EARLY TUES EVENING PD BEFORE 7H TROF AXIS LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WITH RICH MONSOON MOISTURE LIFTING
NWD ACRS AZ/SRN CA AND PARTS OF WRN NM AND RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD SLOW MOVING TSTM
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINS

SULLIVAN/TERRY
$$





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